The Army Black Knights are set to face the Navy Midshipmen this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our Army-Navy prediction, odds, and pick.
It is the final game of the college football regular season, played hours before the Heisman Trophy ceremony that evening. We have a measure of normalcy in the college football world again, since this treasured American sports classic is back where it is supposed to be. This was not the last game of the 2020 regular season, since that year's schedule was thrown into chaos by the pandemic.
Army. Navy. It is a sporting event unlike any other in America. Some would say that Navy-Air Force and Army-Air Force games are also special, and they are, but those games are usually played on campus. Army-Air Force was a rare neutral-site game this season, but it is normally held in either West Point or Colorado Springs.
When you think about your Army-Navy pick, you know this game is a neutral-site contest played in the middle of December on national television. It grabs the football spotlight in the three and a half hours it is played. The other service academy games, part of the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy series, don't command the same level of attention.
This year's clash between the Black Knights and Midshipmen will be held in East Rutherford, N.J., at MetLife Stadium. Let's consider the nuances and tension points which will inform your Army-Navy prediction, based on the available college football odds.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds:
College Football odds: Army-Navy Odds
Army: -7.5 (+106)
Navy: +7.5 (-130)
Over: 35.5 (-108)
Under: 35.5 (-112)
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Why Army Could Cover the Spread
The Black Knights are very clearly the better team here. They are 8-3 and are continuing to thrive under head coach Jeff Monken, who has succeeded fabulously as the coach at West Point over the past several years. Army is trying to win at least nine games in a season for the fourth time in five years.
Army's defense has been superb this season. It got torched by Wake Forest's high-powered offense but has otherwise been a bedrock of dependability. The Black Knights have allowed no more than 17 points in each of their last four games, all victories.
The other big reason to pick Army is that Navy has struggled, especially on offense. The Midshipmen have had some great teams over the past decade under coach Ken Niumatalolo. The 2019 team won 11 games, as did the 2015 team. The 2016 team won nine games. Those Navy teams had very explosive offenses. This Navy team, like last year's team, has not been able to develop a formidable attack.
If you are thinking about an Army Navy pick, realize that Navy has scored more than 24 points in only three games this season. This is why Navy has won only three games, and why the Midshipmen will miss a bowl game for the third time in the last four seasons. It is well known that Navy has not found answers at quarterback or on the offensive line to replenish its offense. The 11-win season under quarterback Malcolm Perry in 2019 has been the exception, not the rule, for Navy in recent seasons.
Why Navy Could Cover the Spread
The Midshipmen will rely on the reality that Army-Navy games are hard-fought and close. Last year's game ended 15-0 for Army, but Navy had a first and goal at the Army 2 in the third quarter and would have taken a 7-3 lead had it converted. Most of these battles between the Black Knights and Midshipmen are tight heading into the fourth quarter. With Army being favored by 7.5 points, Navy losing by seven points would cover the spread. That is a very realistic scenario.
Final Army-Navy Prediction & Pick
Army beat Air Force 21-14 in overtime this year. Air Force beat Navy 23-3 this year. That means both Commander-In-Chief's Trophy games featured fewer than 30 points scored in regulation (28 for Army-Air Force, 26 for Air Force-Navy). Taking the under in a service academy game is a solid play, given the large amount of runs and the rapid pace of play.
Final Army-Navy Pick: Under 35.5
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