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The Oklahoma State Cowboys are set to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our Oklahoma State Notre Dame prediction, odds, and pick.
The 2022 Fiesta Bowl is a matchup of two teams which came very close to making the College Football Playoff. Oklahoma State almost got in, but fell a yard short against Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game. College football odds experts would tell you that if the Cowboys had gained that final yard against Baylor, they might have jumped over Cincinnati for the fourth and final playoff spot. It wasn't a guarantee, but there would have been a legitimate chance that the Pokes could have hit the big show and faced Alabama in the Cotton Bowl. Keep this context in mind when making an Oklahoma State Notre Dame prediction.
Notre Dame needed Oklahoma State to lose, and the Cowboys did, but the Fighting Irish then needed one of two things: They needed Cincinnati to lose to Houston in the AAC Championship Game. That did not happen. The more likely event the Irish needed was for Georgia to knock Alabama out of the playoff by beating the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game. Yet, Alabama rose up and dumped the Dawgs. Notre Dame got locked outside the playoff gates.
Making an Oklahoma State Notre Dame pick is not easy, because these teams appear to be evenly matched and are entering the Fiesta Bowl after barely missing the playoff. Which team will be more motivated? They might be equally driven to win this game. Yet, there are discussion points which might steer this debate in a particular direction.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds:
College Football odds: Oklahoma State-Notre Dame Odds
Oklahoma State: +2.5 (-105)
Notre Dame: -2.5 (-115)
Over: 44.5 (-105)
Under: 44.5 (-115)
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Why Oklahoma State Could Cover the Spread
The Cowboys have a great defense. The Pokes' 11-man wrecking crew contained Oklahoma in the Bedlam game. The Pokes played extremely well in two different meetings against Baylor. They won 11 games mostly by limiting the opposition and providing a large margin for error to the OSU offense. Notre Dame has been inconsistent at quarterback this season, rotating quarterbacks and mainly relying on Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan. Against physically inferior opponents, Notre Dame can do whatever it wants. Oklahoma State will not be physically overpowered and can smother the Fighting Irish offense. Think about that when evaluating the Oklahoma State Notre Dame odds for the Fiesta Bowl.
Why Notre Dame Could Cover the Spread
The Fighting Irish will be playing their first game under new head coach Marcus Freeman, who was promoted from defensive coordinator after previous head coach Brian Kelly stunned everyone in college football by taking the open head coaching job at LSU. The Notre Dame players love Freeman and would run through a brick wall for him. If you are trying to figure out which team will be more motivated, the Freeman factor gives the Irish the edge here, and that is not something to be minimized.
In terms of Xs and Os, Notre Dame's defense should hammer Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders, who committed multiple turnovers which cost the Pokes dearly in the Big 12 title game versus Baylor.
Final Oklahoma State-Notre Dame Prediction & Pick
A rough defensive scrap should be in order for the Fiesta Bowl. This game probably won't be that different from the Big 12 title game, in which 37 total points were scored and Oklahoma State narrowly lost. Marcus Freeman will get his players to play with supreme energy, doing just enough to win this game. Irish 20, Cowboys 17.
Final Oklahoma State-Notre Dame Pick: Notre Dame -2.5, under 44.5
