The Baylor Bears are set to face the Ole Miss Rebels this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our Baylor-Ole Miss prediction, odds, and pick.
The 2022 Sugar Bowl is an X-and-O delight. Defensive guru Dave Aranda of Baylor matches wits with offensive wizard Lane Kiffin of Ole Miss. Two evolving head coaches who are rising to the top tier of their profession will try to win this chess match and lead their team to victory. Yet, when looking at an obvious showdown such as Aranda's defense versus Kiffin's offense, one has to remember that the opposite matchup — Baylor's offense versus Ole Miss's defense — has to be factored into the equation when making a Baylor Ole Miss pick. That part of this game in the Superdome might decide the outcome more than the battle everyone will eagerly watch.
Baylor won the Big 12 title for the first time since 2014. Aranda and Baylor had only one bad game, a loss at TCU. They also lost at Oklahoma State, but they avenged that quality loss by beating the Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game. Baylor pounded the Oklahoma Sooners, leading Baylor fans and bloggers to joke that they chased Lincoln Riley out of the Big 12. That's not true, but it's something Baylor fans certainly relished, being able to beat Oklahoma so convincingly. Keep that in mind when pondering a Baylor Ole Miss prediction. Baylor won 11 games and reminded everyone that no matter the coach, this program is for real. It has made a New Year's Six bowl under three different coaches over the past eight college football seasons.
Ole Miss won 10 games for the first time since 2015, which was also a season when the Rebels made their way to New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl. Lane Kiffin is not just an offensive mastermind; his team had a stout defense which played well in wins over Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M. Ole Miss has a blend of speed and physicality. Everyone will look at quarterback Matt Corral, who is undeniably a great player, but the Ole Miss defense did not back down from a fight. It improved over the course of the year and stood tall in big November games. Lane Kiffin now understands how to tend to all the details of being a head coach, something he didn't previously understand at Tennessee or USC. This is part of why the Baylor Ole Miss odds are where they are.
Speaking of odds:
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds:
College Football odds: Baylor-Ole Miss Odds
Baylor: +1.5 (-110)
Ole Miss: -1.5 (-110)
Over: 55.5 (-105)
Under: 55.5 (-115)
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Why Baylor Could Cover the Spread
The Dave Aranda defensive difference will triumph over Lane Kiffin's offensive genius. If you think Aranda will control this matchup and find ways to do what he wants, ride with Baylor. It's a perfectly reasonable way to arrive at a Baylor Ole Miss prediction.
Why Ole Miss Could Cover the Spread
The Lane Kiffin side of this matchup has to be considered. Kiffin will have Matt Corral healthy after a season in which Corral was pounded. Getting five weeks of rest should make Corral a lot better. That should make Ole Miss a lot better. Baylor's offense has also struggled in recent weeks, and that's the part of this game many people will ignore, lost in the midst of the excitement about Aranda versus Kiffin when Ole Miss has the ball. The Baylor offense is not trustworthy, and Ole Miss's defense has been very good this year, especially later in the season.
Final Baylor-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick
The Ole Miss defense will shut down the Baylor offense. Even though Aranda might outflank Kiffin when Ole Miss has the ball, the Rebels have a defense which can make the difference.
Final Baylor-Ole Miss Pick: Ole Miss -1.5
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