The Los Angeles Lakers haven't live up to the hype during the 2023-24 season. After making a run to the Western Conference Finals and a series of key additions made in the offseason, there was a belief that the Lakers were bonafide contenders and could make a deep run yet again.
But that is not how things have played out so far this season. They currently own a 37-32 record and are sitting at ninth in the Western Conference.
The Lakers find themselves squarely in the play-in tournament and with little hope of playing their way out of it. They're 3.5 games behind the sixth seed and three games behind the eighth seed.
Everyone wants the sixth seed to avoid the play-in, but getting edged outside of the top eight is also a big deal. The seventh and eighth seeds have two shots to win one game to get in the playoffs, while the ninth and tenth seeds have to win two consecutive games to make it.
The Lakers are capable of the latter. They've already done so this year during the In-Season Tournament and have won both of the play-in games they've been a part of.
But they've made the path to get in the playoffs the hardest one possible according to how the standings look. It represents their nightmare seeding scenario.
Play-In Game One: a 9-10 matchup vs the Golden State Warriors
The Lakers' most likely finish at the end of the season is either the ninth or tenth seed. Unfortunately for them, the same can be said for the Golden State Warriors. The Houston Rockets are hanging around in the standings, but a 2.5 game deficit against the Warriors and them being three games behind the Lakers makes it seem unrealistic they can catch either.
That means that another postseason duel between LeBron James and Steph Curry is on the table. The Lakers were able to get by the Warriors in the playoffs in 2023, but things have been different this season.
The Warriors have a better net rating and point differential than the Lakers on the year and have won the last two head-to-head matchups. In those games, Curry has scored 63 points on 24-48 shooting from the field and dropped 46 points on 17-35 in the matchup before these last two also.
The Splash Brothers took care of business in LA as the Warriors get the win and jump the Lakers in the standings 👀
Steph: 31 PTS, 3 3PM, 6 REB, 5 AST
Klay: 26 PTS, 5 3PM, 4 REB pic.twitter.com/PKHkpFyESH— NBA (@NBA) March 17, 2024
To be fair to Los Angeles, Anthony Davis took a gnarly hit to the eye in their last game against Golden State that allowed him to play just 12 minutes. But the Lakers also have a really tough time defending guards, and Steph is the best one in the league.
No one wants to see Curry in a win-or-go-home game under any circumstance. And even if they win, the Lakers still would need to win another game just to get in the playoffs.
Play-In Game 2: the Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings are a horrible matchup for the Lakers. They have not beaten the Kings in any of their meetings this year and only won one of their four duels last year. A big reason why is Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis has Davis' number over the course of their careers.
AD is now 0-10 vs Sabonispic.twitter.com/SEFt5kbdqO https://t.co/rMtLNXV3ZY
— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) March 14, 2024
In addition to that advantage, the Lakers have not been able to keep De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk in check this season either, another example of their difficulty defending guards.
The Kings are a really bad matchup for the Lakers. And to make matters worse, a potential matchup would be in Sacramento. That's a daunting task for Los Angeles to pull off.
First Round: the Denver Nuggets
Even if the Lakers make it all the way into the playoff field, their road once they get there gets arduous quickly. Because if they make it, they can only qualify as an eighth seed. And if they're an eighth seed, they might run into the Denver Nuggets. That's bad news for Los Angeles.
If the Kings have the Lakers' number, then the Nuggets certainly do as well. Denver matches the physicality in the frontcourt Sacramento provides with Sabonis but with a better version of Sabonis in Nikola Jokic, who is poised to win another MVP this season. The Nuggets swept the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals last season and have beaten Los Angles in all three of their matchups this season.
All of these potential matchups are bad ones for the Lakers. They have their work cut out for them. We'll see how they handle this potential matchup nightmare scenario if they come to fruition.
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