The Virginia Cavaliers will host a struggling Louisville Cardinals team in ACC action Wednesday night. It's the first game for Louisville since the holiday break, while Virginia has been able to shake the rust off with two games after the holidays. It is time to continue our college basketball odds series with a Louisville-Virginia prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Louisville had a lot of time to dwell on their disappointing loss to rival Kentucky on December 21st, losing 95-76 to the then-No.9 Wildcats. The Louisville defense couldn't stop Kentucky, allowing them to shoot 51.5% from the field and hit 12 three-pointers. It capped an ugly stretch of play for the Cardinals, losing four out of five games. It won't get any easier against Virginia, who are also looking to turn their fortunes around. The Cardinals haven't won a true road game in two years, dating back to a victory over Georgia Tech on January 2nd, 2022. It is a run of 21 consecutive losses away from home.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Virginia has been stellar on home court. They are 8-0 in Charlottesville, Virginia. Their three losses this season have come in blowout fashion on the road. They have lost two of their last three games, putting up identical 54-point performances while allowing Memphis to score 77 and Notre Dame to score 76. They were an underdog to Memphis, but the result at Notre Dame was surprising as they entered the game 9.5-point favorites. It's a common trend for Virginia's offense to crumble in upset losses in the Tony Bennett era. In the loss to Notre Dame, the Cavaliers shot 38.2% from the field and just 2-for-11 on three-pointers.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Louisville-Virginia Odds
Louisville: +14.5 (-110) ML (+890)
Virginia: -14.5 (-110) ML (-1700)
Over: 128.5 (-115)
Under: 128.5 (-105)
How to Watch Louisville vs. Virginia
Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT
TV: ESPN2
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Louisville Will Cover The Spread
It's hard to bet against Virginia on home court, and as we learned earlier, it may be even harder to bet on Louisville on the road. However, Virginia has struggled on offense, and they are getting shut down by below-average defenses. Notre Dame is a top-100 defense, but Memphis held Virginia to 54 points. Memphis is ranked 214th in scoring defense. Many people are expecting Virginia to return to form on home court and put a hurting on Louisville. If the Virginia offense doesn't bounce back, it will be difficult for them to cover the 14.5-point spread.
Why Virginia Will Cover The Spread
Virginia struggles when teams have above-average offensive games against their stout defense. Virginia struggles to score points when teams play tough defense against them. Neither of these factors should come into play for this game. Louisville has the 135th-ranked scoring offense in the nation, but their 252nd field goal percentage and 317th three-point percentage should be easy for the Cavaliers to handle. Virginia's offense also won't have much resistance from the Cardinals, as they have the 274th-ranked scoring defense and 244th-ranked opponent field goal percentage.
The Virginia defense is a scary matchup for Louisville, as they are eighth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Their three-point defense isn't as daunting, but Louisville having one of the worst three-point teams in the country helps that cause. Louisville ranks 211th with 12.7 turnovers per game, while Virginia's defense is fourth in forced turnovers.
Final Louisville-Virginia Prediction & Pick
There are plenty of reasons why this will be a difficult night for the Louisville Cardinals. It's a devastating matchup for the Louisville offense, as is the case for many teams that Virginia faces. However, the Louisville offense has been one of the worst units in the country this year while playing lesser defenses. The Virginia offense can be shut down on any night, as we have seen in recent games against Notre Dame and Memphis. However, they will be determined to get their offense back on track at home. Their offense struggles on the road against any team, but they have been a spotless 8-0 on home court.
The total seems high if the Virginia offense shows up on Wednesday night. Louisville has one of the worst shooting teams, while Virginia is unsurprisingly a top-five defense. Louisville's propensity to turn the ball over will get the ball in Virginia's slow-paced hands more frequently. It wouldn't be an enormous surprise if Virginia held Louisville to 50 or fewer points. The Virginia offense can put up a lot of points, but they have failed to score more than 60 points in three of their last four games. The two picks here may seem contradictory, but if the Louisville offense struggles as expected, both can be in play.
Final Louisville-Virginia Prediction & Pick: Virginia -14.5 (-110) and Under 128.5 (-105)
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