Ranked 17th in the nation, Shaka Smart and the Marquette Golden Eagles take on Rick Pitino’s St. John’s Red Storm in this important Big East matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Marquette-St. John’s prediction and pick.
Shaka Smart had Marquette ranked as high as 6th nationally in the AP poll before the injury bug swept through Milwaukee. The Golden Eagles have lost both their first and second men off the bench in speedy sophomore guards 5-10 Sean Jones and versatile 6-5 Chase Ross. At an even 3-3 in Big East play, Marquette can not afford to keep slipping down the conference standings.
On the other hand, Rick Pitino and the St. John’s Red Storm have gone through a COVID setback this past week with both Coach Pitino and Jordan Dingle missing Tuesday’s game. All indications point to a return for both on Saturday, but still, neither team has been 100% lately.
Both 1-2 in their previous three games, this feels as close to a January ‘must-win’ game as it gets.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Marquette-St. John's Odds
Marquette: -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -122
St. John's: +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +102
Over: 153.5 (-110)
Under: 153.5 (-110)
How to Watch Marquette vs. St. John's
Time: 12:00 pm ET/ 9:00 am PT
TV: FOX
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Marquette Will Cover The Spread/Win
Alarmingly, St. John’s is allowing Big East opponents to rebound 36.4% of their misses. In seven Big East games, the Red Storm have allowed double-digit offensive rebounds in every game. For a team playing short-handed on the road with a slim margin of error, offensive rebounding can be a lifeline. The key will be 6-11 senior Oso Ighodaro and his interior presence. Ighodaro has the highest offensive rebounding rate on Marquette at 10.6% which ranks top ten in the Big East.
Secondly, This is a St. John’s team that has been prone to allowing large runs which could prove critical in this matchup. Last game against Seton Hall the Johnnies started 1-12 from the field and proceeded to trail the entire game. Two games ago against Creighton, the Johnnies led 56-47 with only nine minutes left before surrendering a 19-9 run to lose by one point, 65-66. Three games ago against Providence, the Johnnies led 20-5 early but eventually trailed 44-45 early in the second half before squeaking out a two-point win.
Marquette has to get repeat performances out of their big three–Tyley Kolek, Kam Jones, and Oso Ighodaro. The margin of error is slim, but if there is any group that can play through adversity it would be Marquette. We just saw them, short-handed, withstand 14 Villanova threes and win by a convincing margin of 13.
Why St. John's Will Cover The Spread/Win
Initially, both Sean Jones and Chase Ross being out is absolutely massive. Especially with this being the Golden Eagles' first road game without Jones and Ross. With near-perfect games at home from all three of Oso Ighodaro (38 min), Tyler Kolek (38 min), and Kam Jones (37 min), Marquette was able to ride the crowd to a win over Villanova. Marquette has turned to an eight-man rotation with two seldom-used freshman guards joining 6-11 Ben Gold off the bench. Now on the road, the margin of error for Marquette becomes smaller and smaller.
Importantly, Marquette has consistently gotten to the free throw line at one of the lowest rates in the country. With a full-season free throw rate of 27.3% (311th), there is about a 5% drop off compared to their in-conference free throw rate of 22.6%. Free throw rates are important in this matchup because besides defensive rebounding, defending without fouling has been St. John’s biggest weakness. Marquette’s injured Sean Jones and Chase Ross were fifth and third on the team in free throws made, despite both coming off the bench. Stylistically, Marquette’s offense should not take advantage of St. John’s defensive fouling issue as much as other Big East teams have.
Surprisingly, Marquette has not shot the three-ball well at all. Shooting just 27.8% from three in Big East play, the Golden Eagles now face a St. John’s perimeter defense that ranks first in the conference allowing just 27.9% from three. The road has not been kind to Marquette either, as they have shot 27.3% from outside in their four true road games.
Final Marquette-St. John's Prediction & Pick
After the heartbreaking Creighton loss, Rick Pitino held nothing back in his postgame presser: “I’ve never felt good after a loss, I feel like I want to kill myself–jump in the cold and die of frostbite.” While that is a bit extreme, his level of urgency is understood. Now he could not coach at Seton Hall, and the Johnnies drop two straight for the first time this year.
Now, we get a highly motivated St. John’s team in a bounce-back spot at home after two road losses playing a short-handed Marquette team in a let-down spot after a big home win. The stars have aligned for the Johnnies in Madison Square Garden.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Marquette-St. John's Prediction & Pick: St. John's ML (+102)
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