Both winners of five straight, Chris Jans’ Mississippi State Bulldogs will take on Lamont Paris’ South Carolina Gamecocks. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Mississippi State-South Carolina prediction and pick.
You may remember how Mississippi State’s season ended last year – a wide open missed three to advance to the round of 64. That may have been the most fitting end to a season as I have seen. Ranking dead last in the nation in three point percentage, Chris Jans made an emphasis on bringing in new talent. Significantly, 5-10 freshman Josh Hubbard has been absolutely incredible for the Bulldogs. Hubbard leads the team in scoring by a sizeable margin, averaging 14.5 points per game shooting 39.1% from outside.
While the emergence of Hubbard has been significant, nothing can match the return of 1st-team All-SEC forward 6-11 senior, Tolu Smith. Smith made his season debut last game against Bethune Cookman putting up 16 points and 9 rebounds in only 19 minutes. The Bulldogs now have returned their entire starting lineup from last year with the injection of freshman standout Josh Hubbard.
Standing in the Bulldogs way, will be a new-look South Carolina team who cashed in the portal big time. The Gamecocks feature ten players who average double digit minutes and five of those ten players were not on the team last year. Minnesota transfer Ta’Lon Cooper had one of the best assist rates in the nation last year and he’s brought his talents with him to Columbia. His ballhandling has helped take the pressure off of Meechie Johnson as well.
Along with Cooper, Vanderbilt’s Myles Stute, Wofford’s BJ Mack, and The Citadel’s Stephen Clark have been massive additions for Lamont Paris. Whatever you thought of the Gamecocks last year, forget it. This is a completely new team. Oh, and I forgot to mention the dynamic 6-7 freshman Collin Murray-Boyles who can really get after it.
Who would have thought this game would have so much build up around it back in September?
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Mississippi State-South Carolina Odds
Mississippi State: -2.5 (-102)
Moneyline: (-132)
South Carolina: +2.5 (-120)
Moneyline: (+110)
Over: 134.5 (-110)
Under: 134.5 (-110)
How to Watch Mississippi State vs. South Carolina
Time: 12:00 pm ET/ 9:00 pm PT
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Mississippi State Will Cover The Spread
What exactly is Mississippi State getting in the return of Tolu Smith? Let’s have to look at his numbers from last year and see where they ranked nationally. Smith was one of the best bigs at drawing fouls and getting to the line. He ranked 5th nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (7.5) and 15th nationally in free throw rate (73.8). Additionally, Smith ranked 25th in offensive rebound percentage (14.7%).
Additionally, Mississippi State already has Jimmy Bell Jr who ranks 13th nationally in free throw rate (84.0) and top 30 in both offensive (14.9%) and defensive 27.1%) rebounding percentages. This duo now formulates one of the most dangerous frontcourts in the country. Not to mention, 6-10 sophomore Keshawn Murphy who brings a slightly different skillset. Where Tolu Smith and Jimmy Bell Jr are straight up bullies in the paint, Keshawn Murphy brings more shot-making ability to the table.
Against the only impressive frontcourt, South Carolina did not defend the bigs well. Clemson’s 6-10 PJ Hall went for 14pts (4-8), 8 rebounds, and 4 blocks while 6-8 Ian Schieffelin put up his first career double-double with 12 points and 12 rebounds.
Chris Jans said earlier this week in a press conference that Tolu Smith has no minutes restriction. He also talked about how well South Carolina shoots the three and spreads the floor. Jans was not happy with the level of competition from guys like Shak Moore, saying he thinks guys like him and Trey Fort have more to offer than they have showed up until this point.
Why South Carolina Will Cover The Spread
A unique aspect of South Carolina’s defense is that it gets better as they go to their bench. Athletic 6-7 sophomore Zachary Davis and 6-7 freshman Collin Murray-Boyles are the two best defenders the Gamecocks have per EvanMiya’s defensive performance ratings. In a matchup where the opposition does not shoot the three ball that well, keeping a high level of defensive intensity throughout the game is crucial. Bringing Davis and Murray-Boyles off the bench allows Lamont Paris to maintain the defensive effort he wants through 40 minutes.
Secondly, the South Carolina defense matches up well against the weaknesses of the Mississippi State offense. The Bulldogs can shoot it a little bit better than last year but still not too good (231st, 31.8%). South Carolina’s highest-ranking category both offensively and defensively is their two-point percentage defense (17th, 43.1%). Do not put too much weight into these statistics because Tolu Smith is a different animal, but it is still encouraging to see the Gamecocks have the scheme to give the Mississippi State interior some issues.
Additionally, the Gamecocks are one of the better teams at running opponents off the three-point line. Defensively allowing a three-point rate of 31.7 ranks 28th lowest nationally. I can guarantee an emphasis in practice this week for Lamont Paris has been not allowing Josh Hubbard to get good looks. Hubbard has 36 made threes on the year, the next highest for the Bulldogs is Dashawn Davis at 15. This one dimensional perimeter attack allows for specific game planning. If the Gamecocks can run Hubbard off the three point line, that is one less thing to worry about.
Final Mississippi State-South Carolina Prediction & Pick
I really do like this South Carolina team. I think they were a few mistakes away from winning at Clemson and going undefeated in their non-conference. Heck, they might even be ranked right now if that result was different. But what concerns me, is the way Clemson was able to win that game was through domination in the paint. If there is one thing Mississippi State is going to do this year, it is win the battle down low.
I still see a bright future ahead for the Gamecocks, but this specific matchup does not look good for them. Give me the team that will control the paint to start conference play with a win.
Final Mississippi State-South Carolina Prediction & Pick: Mississippi State -2.5 (-102)
Follow Us
Subscribe