The Toronto Blue Jays and the Washington Nationals will begin a two-game series on Tuesday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Blue Jays-Nationals prediction and pick.
Both of these teams aren't exactly playing their best baseball right now. The Blue Jays have only won five of their last ten, dropping a series to the Seattle Mariners in that span. The Nationals have fared far worse in the last ten games, as Washington has been swept in two series in a row, earning themselves a 1-9 record throughout that time frame. Both teams will look to put things together in this short two-game set, as the Nationals play for pride while Toronto hopes to earn a playoff seed.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the odds for Monday's game.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Nationals Odds
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Toronto Blue Jays -1 1/2 (-125)
Washington Nationals +1 1/2 (+105)
Over 9 runs (-119)
Under 9 runs (-101)
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread
The only reason the Blue Jays still have a shot at the playoffs is their offense. Toronto's lineup ranks inside the top ten in batting average, OPS, OBP, and slugging percentage. The Blue Jays have some of the most dangerous hitters in the MLB in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and Bo Bichette. This star-studded group should be licking their lips at the prospect of facing Nationals starter Erick Fedde.
Fedde has been one of the Nationals' worst starters. He's earned a 5.12 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP on the season, two uninspiring numbers. Fedde's outlook for this game gets even worse when we take his advanced stats into account. The righty allows a barrel percentage of 8.7% and a hard-hit percentage of 41.2%. Both of those stats are on the higher end of the spectrum, and Fedde is facing a lineup that has six players who have above-average numbers in both of the aforementioned categories. The Blue Jays match up perfectly with Fedde, so expect to see plenty of early runs in this one.
Toronto will send out pitcher Alek Manoah to make the start in this one. Manoah has been elite throughout his 11 starts this season, posting a 2.59 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. Those numbers will obviously get worse as Manoah pitches more innings, but so far he's been lights-out. The Nationals have scored more than four runs only three times in their last ten games, so Manoah should be able to keep their cold streak going.
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
Despite Washington's recent struggles at the plate, they remain a dangerous hitting team. They rank inside the top ten in the MLB in batting average, slugging percentage, and OBP. Manoah has been pitching well lately, but the Nationals still have some statistical edges over him. Manoah is allowing a barrel percentage of 8.3%, which is slightly high. Washington has four players that are barreling at a rate of 9.6% or higher, as well as having five players sport above-average hard-hit percentages. Manoah could run into trouble with the home run ball if he isn't careful.
The Nationals are also a much better offensive team when they play at home. They see a rise in their batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage whenever they defend their home turf. This, combined with the previously mentioned advanced stats show that Washington should be able to break their cold spell at the plate and put up some runs.
Final Blue Jays-Giants Prediction & Pick
This inter-conference matchup provides a pretty easy pick. The Blue Jays should take this game easily and by a wide margin. Lock in Toronto with the spread and don't look back.
FINAL BLUE JAYS-NATIONALS PICK: Toronto Blue Jays -1 1/2 (-125)
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