The New York Yankees will host the New York Mets on Friday in the opener of a three-game series at Yankee Stadium. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Mets – Yankees prediction and pick.
This will mark the first of two Subway Series' this season. These teams played six times last season and split the season series at three wins a piece. The Yankees are currently 41-39 and nine games back of the Red Sox in the AL East. The Mets stand atop the NL East at 41-36.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Mets-Yankees odds.
MLB Odds: Mets-Yankees Odds
New York Mets +1.5 (-150)
New York Yankees -1.5 (+130)
Over 9 Runs (+101)
Under 9 Runs (-121)
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The New York Mets season has been a tale of two stories as they are the best defensive team and one of the worst offensive teams in the league. They've also been playing extremely well at home and not very well on the road. The Mets have really struggled of late with losses in five of their last six road games and five of their last seven games overall.
The Mets are second to last in hits and runs per game. Their offense has been slightly better on the road as they average 3.74 runs per game away from Citi Field. New York's pitching staff has been extremely dominant, allowing a league-low 3.61 runs per game. Their 17-25 road record can be explained by their huge dip in performance on the defense. The Mets have a -1.07 run differential in road games this season.
New York will turn to veteran right-hander Tijuan Walker for the series opener. Walker has been phenomenal this season with a 6-3 record and 2.38 ERA through 14 starts. The Mets starter has seen a slight drop-off with a 2-3 record and 3.32 ERA in road starts. He went 0-1 with seven runs allowed in his two starts against the Yankees last season. Walker allowed just one run through five innings in his last start against the Phillies.
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
The New York Yankees have been one of the biggest disappointments in Major League Baseball this season. Their offense has been dreadful to watch and although they have pitched well, they have dealt with a plethora of injuries. The Yankees have lost five of their last six games and now sit nine games back of the Red Sox in the division.
The Bronx Bombers have been nothing short of absolute trash at the plate this season. They've slowly improved their offensive numbers, but still sit at just 4.11 runs per game. Their defensive numbers have steadily regressed and they now have a -0.04 run differential on the season. New York's home numbers have been slightly better as they average 4.24 runs scored and have a +0.26 run differential at Yankee Stadium.
New York will turn to left-hander Jordan Montgomery for the series opener. Montgomery has been solid for the Yankees this season with a 3-2 record and 4.06 ERA through 15 starts. The southpaw has been impressive over his last seven starts with a 3.35 ERA and 39 strikeouts through 40.1 innings of work. He allowed three earned runs over six innings of work against the Red Sox in his last start.
Final Mets-Yankees Prediction & Pick
This number is too high and I am confident that this game will finish under the total. With the spotlight of a weekend Subway Series, I expect the pitchers to get up for this game. Montgomery has been solid for the Yankees and has a favorable matchup against a horrible Mets lineup. Tijuan Walker, on the other hand, has been electrifying this season and also has a nice matchup against a struggling Yankees lineup. Although the Yankees had a solid offensive series against the Angels horrible pitching staff, I expect a regression against the league's best defensive team.
FINAL PICK: Under 9 Runs (-121)
Follow Us
Subscribe