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MLB Odds: Orioles vs. Reds prediction, odds and pick – 7/29/2022

Orioles, Reds, MLB

It is the start of a rare interleague series as the Baltimore Orioles meet the Cincinnati Reds at the Great American Ballpark on Friday afternoon. It’s time to continue our MLB odds coverage with an Orioles-Reds prediction and pick.

The Orioles and Reds have faced off just 12 times in their vast history. Subsequently, the interleague play did not start until the 90s and these teams never met in the World Series. The Orioles lead the all-time head-to-head 8-4. Also, Baltimore won the last series they played against Cincinnati in 2017, winning two of three. 

The Orioles are coming off a series where they took three of four from the Tampa Bays. Additionally, they are 5-5 over their past 10 games. The Reds are coming off a series where they split a four-game set with the Miami Marlins. Notably, they had the lead in the ninth inning yesterday and could not hold on. The Reds are also 5-5 over 10 games. 

The Orioles do not have a starting pitcher announced, but it is looking like they might go with Dean Kremer on the mound. Kremer is 3-2 with a 3.06 ERA. Recently, he tossed 5 1/3 innings while allowing four earned runs on five hits with six strikeouts. Meanwhile, Mike Minor will be the guy going for the Reds. Minor is having a bad season, as he is 1-7 with a 6.65 ERA. The misery has continued this month, as Minor has gone 0-3 with a 5.31 ERA across four starts. He went four innings in his last bout while allowing five earned runs on eight hits with four walks. 

Here are the Orioles-Reds MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Orioles-Reds Odds

Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+128)

Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-154)

Over: 10 (-105)

Under: 10 (-115)

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Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread

The Orioles are ahead of schedule with their rebuild. Baltimore is 50-48 and three games behind in the wildcard race. Consequently, it has been solid pitching that has kept them in the race, as they have the third-best bullpen in the league. The Orioles’ relievers have helped reduce the strain on a rotation that is not there yet. 

Trey Mancini continues to excel for the Orioles, as he is batting .268 with nine home runs, 38 RBIs, and 36 runs. Likewise, he is 2 for 9 against Minor in his career. Mancini will look to improve his mark against the Reds, where he is batting .167 (1 for 6) against the Big Red Machine. He contributed to yesterday’s win, going 2 for 4 with a home run. 

The Orioles’ offense ranks 24th in batting average, 24th in on-base percentage, 21st in runs, 15th in home runs, and 19th in slugging percentage. Thus, the O’s will need the offense to spike up to have a chance. 

The Orioles will cover the spread if they get a good game from their starting pitcher. Additionally, Baltimore must continue to excel on the backend. The hitters will need to produce more than three runs to cover the spread. 

Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread

The Reds do not have much, but they can cause damage when their batters are on the same wavelength. Tommy Pham went 3 for 5 yesterday with two RBIs. Also, Tyler Naquin contributed by going 1 for 3 with a two-run home run. It was one of those nights where the offense produced enough to win, but the bullpen could not hold the lead. Pham is batting .245 with 11 home runs, 39 RBIs, and 57 runs. Subsequently, he leads the team in walks, as he has gotten a free base 40 times. Naquin is now batting .246 with seven home runs, 33 RBIs, and 29 runs. However, his play is inconsistent. Naquin must garner some streak to gain consistency. 

The Reds rank 16th in batting average, 20th in on-base percentage, 16th in runs, 21st in home runs, and 23rd in slugging percentage. Their bats must come through and provide Cincinnati with a large lead to take Baltimore out of the fold. 

The Reds will cover the spread if Minor can give them a quality start. Cincinnati needs five to six innings from their starter and would prefer him to allow three or fewer runs. Additionally, the Reds must score. They managed six runs yesterday and it still was not enough to win. The good news is that Baltimore’s offense is inconsistent, so six runs might be enough to get the job done. 

Final Orioles-Reds Prediction & Pick

The Orioles have hope for the first time in years while the Reds continue to flounder. Thus, it is easy to go with the Orioles because of the momentum they are riding. Expect the Orioles to cover the spread in this contest. 

Final Orioles-Reds Prediction & Pick: Orioles: -1.5 (+128)