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MLB Odds: Orioles vs. Reds prediction, odds and pick – 7/30/2022

Orioles Reds prediction

The Baltimore Orioles will continue their battle with the Cincinnati Reds in the second of a three-game series Saturday evening in Cincinnati. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Orioles-Reds prediction and pick we have laid out below.

Baltimore continues to be the darlings of the American League, with a 51-49 record good for fourth in the AL East. Still, trades are coming, with fan favorite Trey Mancini likely to depart. The Cinderella story may just strike midnight in the next week, but what a run it has been.

If Baltimore is a feel-good story, Cincinnati could not be more opposite. The gutting of their 38-61 team has begun, with Tyler Naquin heading to the Mets and Luis Castillo bringing a king’s ransom from Seattle. The buzzard-like contending teams can pick at the carcass of this Reds team.

Here are the Orioles-Reds MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Orioles-Reds Odds

Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+146)

Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-178)

Over: 9 (-114)

Under: 9 (-108)

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Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread

Baltimore is in a spot where they could have a real impact on the trade deadline. Trey Mancini, who has spent his career with Baltimore, is likely to be traded and would bring a .272 average and 1o home runs with him to his new club. Still, Mancini is an Oriole for the time being and can impact games offensively. In addition, Adley Rutschman, the former number one pick, has dominated since making his debut. Rutschman ranks first amongst catchers with a .422 OBP in the month of July (per Alex Fast). This is not to say that Baltimore’s offense should be feared, but this is not the Orioles of old that would roll over at any sign of a challenge. A slow, painful rebuild has begun to bear some fruit here.

Dean Kremer will be the starter tonight for Baltimore. Kremer has been solid in his limited work, posting a 3.06 ERA in nine starts. Even with his previous two poor starts (7 ER in 9.1 innings), Kremer has a puny 2.87 ERA in his last seven starts. Kremer should be able to bounce back today, but should he falter, Baltimore’s bullpen is one to count on. Even with the third most innings, the bullpen ranks third in baseball with a 2.99 ERA. First-year closer and first-time All-Star Jorge Lopez (1.68 ERA, 19 saves) has been the headliner. Towering rookie set-up man Felix Bautista has used his 100 mph fastball to hold opponents to a 1.50 ERA while striking out 11.8 per nine. Keegan Aiken, Dillon Tate, and Cionel Perez are the other main weapons in this stacked bullpen.

Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread

Make sure before any bets are placed on Cincinnati that Tyler Mahle, tonight’s starter, is still suiting up for them. Mahle has been another trade subject but will take his 4.48 ERA to the mound for possibly the last time as a Red. Mahle has been great in his last seven starts, with a 3.22 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 44.2 innings. His recent stretch has contenders that will miss on bigger names salivating. Cincinnati owns baseball’s worst ERA at 5.18, while the bullpen’s mark is upped to 5.26.

Offensively, things are not much better. Cincinnati is hitting .240 as a team, 18th in baseball, and that is one of their better categories. Other than Brandon Drury (19 home runs) and Tommy Pham (11 home runs), no Reds batter has reached double-digit home runs. Soon, Pham may be the only legitimate power threat, as Drury’s versatility and newfound hitting prowess makes him expendable for a bad club. Joey Votto is slowly emerging from his terrible beginning to the season, hitting his ninth home run of the season last night. Still, there just is not enough firepower to count on this offense. Mahle will need to take this game by himself for much hope to be had.

Final Orioles-Reds Prediction & Pick

It’s baseball so anything can happen I guess. Just maybe not tonight.

Final Orioles-Reds Prediction & Pick: Baltimore -1.5 (+152), over 9 (-115)