The Philadelphia Phillies will host the San Diego Padres for the first of a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park on Friday evening. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Padres-Phillies prediction and pick.
San Diego has been on a hot streak lately with wins in 11 of its last 13 games. Although they dropped their most recent game against Cincinnati, the Padres have won four straight series coming in. Philadelphia, on the other hand, has been struggling lately with losses in seven of its last 10 games.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Padres-Phillies odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Phillies Odds
San Diego Padres +1.5 (-175)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+155)
Over 8 Runs (-105)
Under 8 Runs (-115)
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres are roaring their way back up the NL West standings as one of the hottest teams in baseball over the past few weeks. With wins in eight of their last 10 games, the Padres are now just 2.5 games back of the San Francisco Giants for the division lead. This series against a struggling Phillies club poses a great opportunity for San Diego to continue gaining ground on the Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers in the loaded NL West.
San Diego is one of the most well-balanced teams in the entire league. The Padres are averaging 4.59 runs scored and allowing just 3.64 runs per game this season. Their offense has been slightly better on the road, with an average of 4.82 runs per game in road contests. They've been hitting the ball well of late with at least five runs scored in five of their last seven games to date.
The Padres will hand the ball to right-hander Chris Paddack for the series opener. Paddack enters with a 4-5 record and 4.64 ERA through 14 starts. He has been serviceable this season and will look to bounce back from his worst start of the season. The right-hander allowed five runs on eight hits in a season-low 2 1/3 innings of work against the Arizona Diamondbacks in his last start.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies have been struggling of late and now sit at just 37-41 on the season. Luckily for the Phillies, the rest of the NL East has struggled as well, leaving them just 4.5 games back of the division lead. Philadelphia is 3-7 over its last 10 games, but have been much better at home with a 22-15 record at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies have been the definition of mediocrity this season on both ends of the field. They're currently averaging 4.27 runs per game this season, which ranks 17th in the majors. They allow 4.58 runs per game, which is the 19th-best mark in the league. Their run differential at home has been much better at +0.38. Despite the recent struggles, the Phillies have remained competitive with four of their last six losses coming by just one run.
Philadelphia will hand the ball to right-hander Zack Wheeler for the series opener. The veteran right-hander is in the midst of his best season with a 6-2 record and 2.20 ERA through 16 starts. Wheeler has been dominant of late with three scoreless starts in his last four outings. He struck out eight batters in seven shutout innings against the New York Mets his last time out.
Final Padres-Phillies Prediction & Pick
Although I find it hard to go against the Padres right now, I'm going to predict that Philadelphia bounces back with a big home win to turn things around. This team is healthier and should be extremely motivated to get back on track. Zack Wheeler is in the middle of a career year and is going through one of his best stretches of the season. Chris Paddack hasn't been great this season, and I simply don't see him being able to go toe-to-toe with Wheeler. The Phillies will improve on their 22-15 home record in the series opener.
FINAL PICK: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-133)
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