The Minnesota Twins take on the Seattle Mariners. Check out our MLB odds series for our Twins Mariners prediction and pick.
Chris Archer gets the start for the Twins, while Chris Flexen gets the call for the Mariners.
Chris Archer has a specific role in the Minnesota rotation: Set up the game for the bullpen. Archer is not an innings eater at this stage of his career. He hasn't pitched more than five full innings in any of his 11 appearances in 2022. He hasn't given up more than four earned runs in any of his starts, but the fact that he usually pitches no more than four innings (eight of his 11 starts) makes it hard to place too much value on that statistic. A better and more positive statistic for Archer is that in four of his last five starts, he has allowed only one run. That run of form has enabled Archer to reduce what had been a 4.43 ERA down to its current number, 3.65. If he can give the Twins five innings and only one run allowed, which he has done in his last two starts — one of them against the Yankees — Minnesota fans will be very happy.
Chris Flexen had a bumpy middle of May. In a three-start sequence from May 9-21, Flexen pitched 14 1/3 innings and gave up 14 runs. What had been a 3.10 ERA in early May soared to 4.98. However, in his last three starts, Flexen has bounced back. He has pitched 18 2/3 innings and surrendered only six runs. That will play. It's what the Mariners need from Flexen and the rest of their starters as they try to make a push for the American League's wild card spots.
Home runs are the key for Flexen. In that bad stretch of starts in mid-May, he allowed six homers. In his last three strong outings, Flexen hasn't allowed a single gopher ball. When he keeps the ball in the park, he's good.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Twins-Mariners MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Twins-Mariners Odds
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+155)
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-192)
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
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Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
The Twins just won a series against the formidable Tampa Bay Rays. They very nearly won their series last week against the New York Yankees, but blew a 7-3 lead. The Twins recently won a series in Toronto against the Blue Jays. They have gone against the best teams in the American League East and held their own, which will quiet the critics who think the Twins are merely a product of the tissue-soft American League Central. The Twins have shown they can hang with top teams in the A.L. They can certainly handle the Mariners, who suffered a disappointing series loss over the weekend versus the Boston Red Sox, and who are struggling to get over the hump this season. The Twins should also like this pitching matchup. Chris Archer has been better in his last two starts, while Chris Flexen has been noticeably inconsistent for Seattle.
Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread
The Twins played a tough three-game weekend series against the Rays, and now have to fly to the Pacific Northwest for a Monday night game. The Mariners, who are in the middle of an extended homestand, should be the fresher team. They also know that Chris Flexen has pitched better in his last three starts. Chris Archer is a good pitcher, but he doesn't pitch deep into games. The Mariners might not score in the first two innings, but when they see Archer a second time through the batting order, they have a good chance of getting to him for a few runs and gaining leverage in this game.
Final Twins-Mariners Prediction & Pick
The Twins' performance against the three heavyweights of the American League East — Yankees, Rays, and Jays — bodes well for them in this game and, beyond that, the rest of the regular season.
Final Twins-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Twins -1.5
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