Illinois grabbed the No.3 seed in the East region and will take on the winners of the Ohio Valley Conference, Morehead State. The matchup's winner will advance to the second round to take on the victor of No.6 BYU and No.11 Duquesne. It is time to continue our men's college basketball odds series with a Morehead State-Illinois prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Morehead State enters the opening round on a six-game winning streak after losing three straight in mid-February. They are led by senior guard Drew Thelwell, who set the school's single-season assist record. The Eagles also have one of the nation's best sharpshooters, Kalil Thomas. Riley Minix is the Eagles' toughest competitor, as he was the Ohio Valley Player of the Year with 20.8 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. He chipped in 26 points and seven rebounds in Morehead State's 14-point victory over Little Rock in the tournament's championship game.
Illinois enters March Madness with a chip on its shoulder, failing to advance past the first weekend in three straight tournaments. Winning the Big Ten conference tournament was a good start for the Fighting Illini, as they won games against Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. It can be said that they faced an easier schedule, with Wisconsin and Ohio State pulling off upsets along the way to knock out Iowa and Purdue, but Illinois still took care of business.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Morehead State-Illinois Odds
Morehead State: +11.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +570
Illinois: -11.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -850
Over: 148.5 (-105)
Under: 148.5 (-115)
How to Watch March Madness
Time: 3:10 PM ET/12:10 PM PT
TV: truTV
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Morehead State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Riley Minix must have the game of his life to help Morehead State pull off the upset in this game. The same can be said for any star of the lower-seeded teams, but in this case, it isn't that far out of the realm of possibility. Minix has been a force in the Ohio Valley Conference, scoring 20 points or more in 12 of the past 13 games. Minix has been one of the best players in the country against inferior opponents, but a matchup with a Big Ten defense could be insurmountable.
Morehead State has an effective field goal percentage of 54.4%, which ranks 35th in the country. They also shoot 55.5% on two-point field goal attempts and hold their opponents to 45.7%. A lot of this is attributed to playing weaker competition, but Illinois can't take the Eagles lightly.
Why Illinois Will Cover The Spread/Win
Morehead State showed their weaknesses in early-season non-conference games against Alabama and Purdue. The Eagles struggled to do anything against the power conference opponents, which could mean they will struggle against Illinois. Illinois' offense will challenge Morehead State, as they rank 12th in the nation with 84.4 points per game. The Eagles couldn't compete with Purdue and Alabama who have similar high-octane offenses.
Illinois has four players who averaged double-digits during the regular season and can play seven-deep off the bench for 20+ minutes per night. Four more players can give them nearly ten minutes per game. Morehead State has some of the worst depth in the tournament, with 90% of their scoring coming from their starters.
Final Morehead State-Illinois Prediction & Pick
Morehead State looks like a challenge for Illinois on paper, but the Fighting Illini won't be worried about the Ohio Valley champions. Illinois will play tough against the team's leading scorers, and the Eagles' lack of depth will bury the team. Take Illinois to dominate Morehead State like Purdue and Alabama before them and move on easily to the second round.
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Final Morehead State-Illinois Prediction & Pick: Illinois -11.5 (-120)
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