The Los Angeles Lakers take on the Los Angeles Clippers for the third time this season in a battle for L.A. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Lakers-Clippers prediction and pick.
The Lakers hold an overall record of 37-28, and they are 29-35-1 against the spread. Los Angeles is coming off an impressive win over the Denver Nuggets.
The Clippers stand at 44-22 overall but are 36-29-1 against the spread. They're coming off a close win over the Toronto Raptors.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Lakers-Clippers odds.
NBA Odds: Lakers-Clippers Odds
Los Angeles Clippers -8 (-110)
Los Angeles Lakers +8 (-110)
Over 211 Points (-110)
Under 211 Points (-110)
Why The Lakers Could Cover The Spread
While the Lakers haven't seen much success with or without LeBron in the last few weeks, they are coming into this matchup riding at least a little momentum.
L.A. upset the Nuggets on the Staples Center floor in their last matchup, holding presumptive MVP Nikola Jokic to one of his worst shooting performances of the season.
When the Lakers do win, they win because of their defense. The purple and gold have allowed the second-fewest points in the league, the seventh-lowest field-goal percentage, and most importantly for this matchup, the fourth-lowest three-point percentage.
The Clippers get 37.8% of their total points from beyond the arc, the sixth-highest percentage in the NBA. The Lakers completely shut down the Nuggets, a very good three-point shooting team, holding them to only six makes all game last time out.
If the Lakers can continue their quality perimeter defense, we could see the Clippers struggle to put up big numbers.
On the offensive end, the Lakers will rely heavily on their second star, Anthony Davis.
Davis continues to play himself back in to shape, and produced a solid outing against the stout Nuggets interior defense last time out. In his last four matchups, Davis is averaging 21.2 points on 44.6% shooting, but seems to be getting better with every game.
The Lakers need Davis to look like the Davis of old on Thursday against their inner-city rival on both ends of the floor.
Why The Clippers Could Cover The Spread
The Lakers have a great defense, but the Clippers aren't too far behind them. The Clips allow the fifth least points in the league, the seventh-lowest three-point percentage, and the fifth least offensive rebounds.
The Lakers aren't much of a threat from beyond the arc, shooting the eighth lowest percentage from three in the NBA. In fact, the Lakers haven't been much of a threat from anywhere recently.
Frank Vogel's group has topped 110 points just twice in their last eight matchups, with one of those occurrences coming against a lowly Orlando Magic defense. The team has clearly struggled to put together a cohesive and effective offense as Davis finds his way back and LeBron unable to consistently take the floor.
Nw, they'll have to face two of the best perimeter defenders in the league in Paul George and Kawhi Leonard without two of their three main ball-handlers, as James and Dennis Schroder will miss this matchup. Making matters even direr for the LakeShow is the possibility that Talen Horton-Tucker misses this matchup with a right calf strain.
Barring Anthony Davis going ballistic, it's extremely difficult to see the Lakers get any consistent scoring tonight. They can try to pound the painted area, but the Clippers have held their own down low, only allowing 46.9 paint points per game.
Offensively, the Clippers are dealing with integrating their own players. Leonard and Patrick Beverley are finding their way back in their roles, but the Clips have multiple scorers they can fall back on as they find their groove.
The focus on Thursday for Ty Lue's men should be on the defensive end. If they can keep Anthony Davis in check, they should cruise to victory.
Final Lakers-Clippers Prediction & Pick
Both of these teams have atrocious spread records of late. The Lakers are only 1-6-1 over their last eight ATS, while the Clippers are 2-6. I think the eight-point spread is probably a solid estimation of where this game should end up, so I have no interest in playing either team's spread tonight. Instead, I'll place a wager on the total. The under has dominated of late in L.A. games, cashing in six straight Clips games and three of the Lakers last four. With so many key offensive pieces missing for the purple and gold, I would be surprised to see them get triple digits tonight, and their defense is still good enough to prevent a Clips explosion.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: LAC 105, LAL 97 (UNDER 211)
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