The Dallas Mavericks will take on the Boston Celtics for the second time this season tonight. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Mavericks-Celtics prediction and pick.
The Mavericks hold an overall record of 24-21, but they are 21-24 against the spread. Dallas is coming off a blowout win over the Oklahoma City Thunder
The Celtics stand at 23-24 overall and 22-25 against the spread. Boston is coming off a hard fought loss to the New Orleans Pelicans.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Mavericks-Celtics odds.
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Celtics Odds
Boston Celtics -1 (-105)
Dallas Mavericks +1 (-115)
Over 221 Points (-110)
Under 221 Points (-110)
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
The Mavericks have been much better at covering on the road than at home all season. In their last four road games, the MAvs have covered in three of them. The average margin of victory in those wins was 27 points.
Overall, Dallas is 13-11 ATS away from home, and just 8-13 in their home arena. Luka Doncic and company seem to get a significant boost on a foreign floor.
Speaking of Doncic, the Slovenian star did not miss a beat in his return from a two-game absence.
Against the Thunder, Doncic put up 25 points and seven assists while shooting above 50% from the field and 40% from three.
Luka is the piece that makes this Mavericks offense click, and Dallas badly needs a big game from him against a Celtics team that has plenty of scorers.
When Doncic is connecting on his three-point shot, the Mavericks have been nearly unbeatable. In the last ten games Doncic has shot 40% or better from deep, Dallas is 8-2 overall.
The Celtics have struggled to guard the three-point line, allowing opponents to hit 37.2% of their triples. Boston has allowed 15+ threes in three of their last five games.
The Mavericks shooters are notoriously streaky, but this matchup gives them a slight advantage. The Mavericks should get plenty of open threes tonight, and odds are they knock down enough of them to make this a close game.
On the defensive end, Dallas has greatly improved since the start of the season. They have moved in to the upper tier of the NBA, allowing the 12th least points in the league.
Their interior defense has been impressive, holding opponents to just 46.0% from the field. This Boston team thrives off the midrange shot and paint buckets, but they’ll meet some stiff resistance from Dallas tonight.
Why The Celtics Could Cover The Spread
The last time these two faced, it took a Luka Doncic miracle shot to put the Mavs over the top. This was against a Celtics team without their best perimeter defender in Marcus Smart.
Now that Smart is healthy, Boston will have multiple physical defenders to throw at Doncic to prevent him from going off tonight. Smart is likely to get the primary assignment, but Jayson Tatum, and new acquisition Evan Fournier will have their shot at stopping the Dallas star.
The biggest question for the Celtics tonight is Jaylen Brown’s availability. Brown is currently listed as questionable with a left hip contusion.
Assuming Boston is forced to play without Brown tonight, they should still have a shot at pulling off the win.
Even though they are coming off a brutal loss to the Pelicans, the Celtics have been a solid team of late. They showed some fight towards the end of the New Orleans team when they could’ve accepted a loss, and had won two straight prior to that.
Boston’s defense has been the driving force of their wins. They’ve held their last three opponents under their scoring average, and have shown the ability to clamp down when they need stops.
The Celtics are middle-tier in nearly every defensive stat, but they don’t need a lockdown effort here to stay in the game. As long as they can bother the Mavericks shooters and prevent Doncic from getting comfortable early, this one will come down to the wire.
Final Mavericks-Celtics Prediction & Pick
Dallas has won five of their last seven with Doncic and Porzingis healthy, and I expect the trend to continue tonight. If Brown misses tonight’s game, the Celtics will be missing one of their most important players on both sides of the court. The Celtics have dealt with cohesion issues all year, and these nagging injuries are doing them no favors. Dallas is clicking with both of their stars on the court, and I expect them to get the close win tonight.
FINAL PICK: DALLAS MAVERICKS +1
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