You know, there are just some teams that must really hate Selection Sunday. Let's break down how the Colgate Raiders match up against the Arkansas Razorbacks in this preview, odds, and prediction.
By all accounts, the entire purpose of a tournament's structure is to make sure that the best teams go the farthest in the end. But combine a single-elimination structure, a 68 team field, and a committee that decides the matchups, and you have the perfect recipe to make March Madness just that- mad.
That is no different this year, as one of the hottest teams in the SEC had the misfortune to draw one of the most dangerous unknowns in the field.
Arkansas is one of the darlings of the SEC and made it all the way to the semi-finals of the NCAA Tournament before falling to LSU. They sit at 22-6 and have no true weaknesses on their team. In a vacuum, they should be enjoying their status as a dark horse Elite 8 team.
Colgate has something to say about that. While the Raiders have no signature wins, they are similar to Arkansas in that they have triple-digit scoring potential. They emerged late onto the scene this season, and have only been able to play fifteen games, but at 14-1 they have proven to be an absolute buzz saw against their opponents.
Here is how the sportsbooks have set the odds:
NCAA Odds: Colgate-Arkansas
Colgate Raiders +8.5 (-110)
Arkansas Razorbacks -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 161 (-110)
Why Colgate Could Cover the Spread
If there is one team every single major should fear, it is the Colgate Raiders. At 14-1, they are a wildly dangerous unknown quantity in the tournament, with half the tape available to scout. Whatever tape does exist is scary.
Every single one of their wins is by double digits, and their only loss was in the second game of the season against an Army team looking for revenge. Why were they looking for revenge you ask? Because just the previous night, Colgate bludgeoned them by 44 points, 101-57. And Army just squeaked by with a two-point victory.
While Colgate lacks any quad one victories, its record, an absurd margin of victory, and scoring ability (only five games with under 80 points) make them terrifying to plan for. So what if they don't have any signature wins? Neither does Arkansas, except for Alabama.
That assessment, by the way, assumes that there is any useful footage on the Colgate Raiders, which there really isn't.
Why Arkansas Could Cover the Spread
Who has Colgate beaten? Seriously?
In Arkansas' mind, there is no reason to believe that a mid-major from the Patriot League can actually step to them, conference champion or not.
And for all of Colgate's scoring, Arkansas is one of the top seeds that can keep up with them, and even outpace them. The Razorbacks also have blowout and triple-digit scoring potential, and their victories are similarly thorough.
They are a team that, while it doesn't quite excel at anything, literally has no weaknesses. This signifies that they are polished, robotically systematic, and can handle the bright lights. While Colgate can do that too to an extent, this will be the Raiders' biggest stage in a while, and they don't have the same sort of experience performing under scrutiny that Arkansas does.
That disparity is dangerous for a team like Colgate.
Final Colgate-Arkansas Prediction & Pick
While the Razorbacks are wildly talented and have genuine dark horse potential, they really had rotten luck on Selection Sunday. They drew a truly dangerous opponent in Colgate, the rare 14 seed that can keep up with the big boys in the score column. Throw in the fact that the Raiders simply can't be scouted this year to the same degree that other teams would, and there is a good chance that Arkansas is about to be punched in the mouth from the get-go.
The question is how they will react.
Between their depth and star power in All-American Moses Moody, Arkansas is well-equipped to do so. But this spread is ridiculously underestimating the Raiders' potential. Never, ever, bet against a streaking underdog that can shoot. This is going to be an absolute fireworks show, and will definitely come down to the last few minutes.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION & PICK: COLGATE 81, ARKANSAS 85 (COLGATE +8.5)
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