Chris Beard and the Ole Miss Rebels play host to Buzz Williams’ Texas A&M Aggies in this important SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Texas A&M-Ole Miss prediction and pick.
After a brutal February ending with five straight losses, Buzz Williams and the Aggies have rebounded. A road win over Georgia and a home win over Mississippi State have Texas A&M clinging onto their postseason hopes. Senior big man Henry Coleman has not played the past two games but that has not hampered the Aggies too much. Undersized forwards Andersson Garcia and Solo Washington have maintained A&M’s dominance on the boards to complement the Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford backcourt.
On the other hand, Ole Miss has fallen off a cliff after a hot start to conference play. Since February, Ole Miss has gone 2-7 with their only two wins being over the league’s worst, Missouri. The recent slide has knocked the Rebels out of the tournament picture, but there is still an SEC tournament to be played. Senior’s Allen Flanigan and Matthew Murrell have been banged up as of late, but all signs point towards both being a full go.
With a logjam in the standings, SEC tournament seeding is on the line here. To the eye, it may seem like a meaningless game but just know these teams still have a lot to play for.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Texas A&M-Ole Miss Odds
Texas A&M: +1.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -105
Ole Miss: -1.5 (-102)
Moneyline: -114
Over: 145.5 (-110)
Under: 145.5 (-110)
How to Watch Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss
Time: 2:00pm ET/11:00am PT
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Texas A&M Will Cover The Spread/Win
To start, this is a do-or-die game for the Aggies. The latest NET rankings still have Texas A&M ranked 49th thanks to their six Quad 1 wins. While a Quad 2 win over Ole Miss will be nice, a loss here would be detrimental. The defense has been the difference in back-to-back wins at Georgia (56) and home over Mississippi State (69). Without Henry Coleman, Buzz has turned to Andersson Garcia at the five and Solo Washington at the four. This gives the Aggies the ability to switch at every position. Buzz has said many times before that Washington is the team's best defender.
Also, Texas A&M should have won the first matchup. With 3:39 remaining in the second half, the Aggies led 60-53 and had a 94.2% win probability. Jaylen Murray was not able to stay in front of Wade Taylor all night leading to a rare efficient night from Taylor (30pts, 5-11 2pt, 5-9 3pt). Taylor’s float game and ability to stop on a dime is perfect against the drop coverage shot blocking of Jamarion Sharp and Moussa Cisse.
Finally, and most importantly, the best aspect of the Texas A&M offense is an area Ole Miss exploits. The Rebel defense allows a high efficiency but they make up for it with turnovers. Thankfully, A&M ranks first in the SEC in both offensive steal rate (7.7%) and turnover rate (13.9%). If Texas A&M can hold to their turnover rates, they should see high-quality looks often.
Why Ole Miss Will Cover The Spread/Win
First, the fortress that The Pavilion was to start the season may be reeling but it is senior night. Major contributors Allen Flanigan, Matthew Murrell, and Jamarion Sharp are playing their final home game as Rebels. Jaemyn Brakefield and Moussa Cisse plan on returning to school as of right now. While Flanigan and Sharp transferred in, Murrell is a four-year Rebel. They came in a wave, but Ole Miss’s only home losses this year are Auburn (6th per KenPom), South Carolina (47th per KP), and Alabama (9th per KP). The Pavilion is still a tough place to play.
Offensively, Texas A&M’s opponents shoot a ton of three-pointers. Opponents are shooting an SEC-high 45.4% of their field goal attempts from three. For Ole Miss, the quality outside shooting percentage comes on low volume. The Rebels are only attempting 35.2% of their shots from three. In the first matchup, Ole Miss made ten threes en route to victory. If Ole Miss can replicate that shooting they will be in a great position.
Additionally, the Texas A&M offense has struggled on the road. The Aggies are averaging just 69.1 points per game on the road in conference play. In the first matchup, Ole Miss held A&M to 68 points with their best perimeter defender, Matthew Murrell, only playing 27 minutes due to foul trouble. In a game where 70 may be the magic number, the defensive performance from the first matchup should give the Rebels confidence.
Final Texas A&M-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick
The Rebels have been one of my favorite teams all year. And now on senior night, it almost feels illegal to pick against them. But with how the Aggies controlled the first matchup for the majority and their recent uptick in defense, I will side with the road squad here.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Texas A&M-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick: Texas A&M ML (-105)
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