UConn begins its Big East Tournament as they face Xavier. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Xavier-UConn prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Xavier entered the tournament as the ninth seed in the Big East Tournament. They lost their last two games of the season, including one Butler, but they would avenge their loss to Butler in the tournament. It was a close game with Butler. The largest lead of the game was just seven points, which Xavier held twice in the game. The first time was in the first half, but a nearly five-minute scoreless drought allowed Butler to close that lead. They would get that lead back late in the second half though, ultimately winning the game 76-72.
Meanwhile, UConn is the top seed in the Big East tournament. That earned them a bye into the second round. They would finish the season at 28-3 on the year, and 18-2 in conference play. Their first loss of the season was a four-point loss on the road to Kansas before thye dropped their conference opener to Seton Hall. After that, they would win 18 of 19 games, with the only loss being to Creighton on the road 85-66. They played Xavier twice this year, winning both games. The first game was just a five-point win, but the second was by 44.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Xavier-UConn Odds
Xavier: +15.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +980
UConn: -15.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -2000
Over: 150.5 (-110)
Under: 150.5 (-110)
How to Watch Xavier vs. UCONN
Time: 12:00 PM ET/ 9:00 AM PT
TV: FS1
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Xavier Will Cover The Spread/Win
Xavier sits 54th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are 66th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 51st in adjusted defensive efficiency. Xavier is 80th in the nation in points per game, but they are 247th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. Quincy Olivari leads Xavier. Olivari comes in averaging 19.5 points per game this year while shooting 43.4 percent from the field this year. Further, he shoots 43.2 percent from three this year. Also scoring well is Desmond Claude. Claude comes in with 16.0 points per game this year. Dayvion McKnight comes in with 12.4 points per game this year and is leading the team in assists this year. He comes in with five assists per game this year.
Xavier is 42nd in the nation in rebounds per game this year. Still, they are 193rd in defensive rebound percentage this year but are 99th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate. This is led by Abou Ousmane. He comes in with 6.5 rebounds per game this year and has been solid in offensive rebounding this year, with nearly half of his rebounds coming on the offensive end. Also helping out is Quincy Olivary, who comes in with 5.5 rebounds per game this year. Further, Gytis Nemeiksa comes in with 4.5 rebounds per game this year.
Xavier ranks 229th in the nation in opponent points per game this year, but they are 96th in opponent effective field goal percentage this year. Dayvion McKnight has 1.5 steals per game this year while being one of four players this year with one steal or more per game. Quincy Olivari comes in with 1.3 steals per game as well, while Abou Ousmane comes in with 1.2 blocks per game this season.
Why UConn Will Cover The Spread/Win
UConn comes in ranked second in KenPom's adjusted ratings this year. They are third in adjusted offensive efficiency this year while sitting 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are 22nd in the nation in points per game this year, while sitting ninth in the nation in effective field goal percentage. UConn has been a great shooting team inside the arc, sitting eighth in the nation in two-point field goal percentage this year.
UConn has been led by the combination of Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban, and Tristen Newton this year. Newton leads the way this year with 15.0 points per game this year. He is shooting the worst of the group though, shooing just 40.5 percent. He does lead the team in assists, coming in with 5.8 per game. Spencer comes in with 14.7 points per game this year. He is shooting 49.2 percent from the field. Finally, Karaban has 14.2 points per game this year, while also shooting 50.3 percent from the field.
UConn sits 31st in the nation in rebounds per game, but they are 12th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage while sitting 42nd in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage this year. This is led by Newton, who comes in with 7.1 rebounds per game this year. Still, most of his are on the defensive end. The major offensive rebounding threat is Donovan Clingan. He comes in with 6.9 rebounds per game, with nearly three rebounds per game being on the offensive side. Further, he scores 12.4 points per game, while shooting 63.7 percent.
On defense, UConn is 11th in the nation in points against per game this year. They sit fourth in opponent effective field goal percentage this year as well. UConn forces people into the middle, where one of their big men often causes difficult shots this year. They are ninth in the nation in blocks this year and sixth in block percentage this year. Clingan leads the way here with 2.3 blocks per game this year, while Samson Johnson adds 1.0 blocks per game. Further, Cam Spencer has 1.5 steals per game this year.
Final Xavier-UConn Prediction & Pick
UConn was amazing this year and did great coming down the stretch run. They covered seven of their last eight games, with the only miss being the loss. This year as 14-point favorites or more, they went 7-5. The over in those games went 10-2-1 though. While Xavier is a solid team on defense, this is a conference tournament game, and hitting that spread for UConn may be difficult. The prediction for this Xavier-UConn game is UConn scores plenty, so take the over.
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Final Xavier-UCONN Prediction & Pick: Over 150.5 (-110)
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