The more things change, the more they stay the same. Less than six months after the Denver Nuggets announced themselves as a force to be reckoned with in the West following a surprising run to the conference finals, the franchise once again finds itself stuck in the second-tier of contenders, struggling to break out. While Nikola Jokic has emerged as a front-runner for the league's MVP award, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and the rest of the Nuggets supporting cast have struggled to duplicate their production from last season's bubble with any consistency.
Although Denver's floor is as high as any team in the association, the Nuggets' ability to lift their ceiling will be the determining factor for an organization quickly approaching the championship-or-bust phase of their development. For a team that has spent the better part of the past three years as a franchise that is “one player away, from being one player away,” there is no better time than now for the Nuggets to make an all-in trade.
To help save Denver's front office some leg work, we've identified the two best players the Nuggets must target ahead of the 2021 NBA trade deadline. They can thank us later.
2. Harrison Barnes for Nuggets' Gary Harris, Bol Bol, 2021 First Round Pick, and 2024 Second Round Picks
Since being drafted by the organization in the first round in 2014, no other player on Denver's roster has tantalized, and frustrated Nuggets fans quite like Gary Harris. At his best, Harris is the consummate 3-and-D perimeter player general manager's dream of uncovering in the modern NBA, utilizing his quick feet 6'7 wingspan to swallow opponents while spacing the floor on the other end with his deadly outside shooting. At his worst, he's such a black hole on offense that not even his exceptional defense lifts him far above replacement level territory.
The problem for the Nuggets is that we've seen far more of Harris' worst than we have of his best over the past three years.
Since topping out at 17.5 points per game on nearly 40% shooting from behind the arc in 2018–to go along with a +5.3 plus/minus, per Cleaning the Glass–Harris has failed to average more than 12 points per contest while his shooting numbers have worsened with each passing year. Even factoring in the superb defense that defines his game–ranking in the 89th percentile of all defenders according to tracking data from Synergy Sports–the Nuggets barely come out on top in minutes in which Harris plays.
For a team that already holds a narrow margin of error against the top competition in the West, the need to switch Harris in and out of the lineup late in games depending upon the offensive or defensive needs of the team may be too great a challenge for Mike Malone and company to overcome.
Enter Harrison Barnes.
Since his infamous flameout in the 2016 NBA Finals, Barnes has found second-life as a linchpin of rotations in both Dallas and Sacramento. Yet for all his success following his departure from the Golden State Warriors, Barnes is having arguably the best year of his career this season, with a Kings team that can't seem to get out of its own way.
Not only does the forward carry a 62% true shooting percentage, but he possesses the same defensive versatility that has made Harris so valuable, regularly switching onto smaller, faster guards without getting burned in the process. Even more impressive has been his ability to cover the interior, with the Kings regularly employing his 230-lb solid frame as a weakside help defender when Marvin Bagley is getting bullied down low.
With Sacramento appearing miles away from contention, the Kings would not only benefit from gaining draft assets and a prospect in Bol Bol but a player in Harris who could still retain value if he can fix his shooting woes. As for Denver, the Nuggets would acquire a defender in Barnes who not only plays with the consistency that Harris has lacked but a contract that decreases in value over the next two seasons–a rarity in the league.
Simply put, Gary Harris has been good at times for the Nuggets, but Harrison Barnes would be better.
1. Kyle Lowry for Gary Harris, Bol Bol, Facundo Campazzo, Jerami Grant Trade Exception, and Two First Round Picks in 2021 & 2027
With Monte Morris unable to be traded due to the signing of his contract extension in December, the Nuggets will have to compensate for the lack of high-upside prospects with a draft asset that extends far enough into the future that it holds the potential to dramatically increase in value. Even with Denver taking on the added uncertainty, it's entirely possible that Toronto will demand Zeke Nnaji as well in the deal, making the price even steeper for the Nuggets, and ensuring the team is stripped of every young, tradable asset outside the aforementioned Morris.
Regardless, if Denver has the opportunity to add Lowry, the franchise shouldn't think twice about acquiring the all-world point guard.
While Lowry would continue to see looks in his preferred pick-and-roll attack–which he runs on nearly 30% of possessions in which he is the finishing ball-handler, per Synergy–the guard would also have the opportunity to expand his offensive repertoire with sets that call for a dribble handoff.
Although the Raptors rarely employ the action, hand-offs by Nikola Jokic are a staple of the Nuggets attack, as the big man routinely punishes defenders who don't see the action coming with his stout screening ability. Even when opposing guards do anticipate the hand-off and guard one of Denver's wings in the chest to deny them the chance to grab the rock, Jokic is smart enough to pull the ball back for a split-second to lull the defender asleep before firing it away to his teammate who never stopped the curl. While they may not be the most exciting plays in the game, the routes have proven to be some of the deadliest actions the Nuggets employ, precisely because its simplicity lends itself to whatever adjustments and tweaks the brilliant mind of Nikola Jokic can dream up.
Give him a point guard that is every bit as savvy, and the Nuggets might as well brand themselves an on-court think-tank that outsmarts their opponents on a nightly basis.
However, just as importantly, Lowry's arrival in the Mile High City would allow Jamal Murray to play an off-guard position during the game's most critical minutes. Though Murray has proven capable of serving at either the one or two, there's no denying that pairing him with a competent point guard has proven effective in the past. While the Nuggets are a respectable plus-5.8 when Murray occupies the point across 1,321 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass, Denver is a shocking plus-12 when they move him to the two-guard position, in a slightly smaller sample of 1239 possessions. With some of those numbers almost certainly the result of Monte Morris outplaying Garry Harris for much of the year, there have been some decent indicators that Murray could benefit from guarding off-ball opponents and increasing his cutting and spot-up looks.
Fit aside, adding Kyle Lowry would be an infusion of talent second only the Nets' acquisition of James Harden earlier in the season. For a franchise that is on the cusp of competing for a slot in the NBA Finals, there's no better time than now to take a big swing.
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