With the NBA trade deadline just over two months away, negotiations around the league have begun to heat up as teams look to get their rosters set for the home stretch. While completing transactions can always be challenging given the need to match salaries and ensure that both sides receive fair value, the NBA trade market this season presents multiple unique challenges that general managers will have to overcome.
Among the issues at play is the association's current financial situation. After losing an estimated 10% of their expected revenue during the 2019-2020 season due to the Covid-19 pandemic, franchises across the league have shown greater hesitancy towards taking on additional salaries. With few teams able to absorb contracts outright, the cost of moving players has grown as teams have included third and fourth partners to facilitate the exchange of salary commitments, each requiring draft compensation for taking part in the deal.
Perhaps even more pertinent, however, has been the expansion of the playoffs. With the seventh through tenth seeds in each conference earning the right to participate in a play-in tournament for the final two spots in the 16-team field, fewer organizations have reason to punt on the season and commence a teardown. In an NBA trade market that is suddenly bereft of “sellers,” teams that wish to add talent must suddenly increase their offers as a means of enticing opponents to give up their assets.
For this reason, even a squad like the Washington Wizards, who currently own the worst record in the NBA at 4-12, find themselves only 2.5 games out of the 10th spot in the standings and a chance to miraculously make the playoffs. While it's still likely that the team will fail in their attempt to qualify for the postseason, even the glimmer of hope may prove too difficult to resist, as they search for reasons to hold onto Bradley Beal.
That said, while top-line talent may be difficult to come by for the rest of the season, GM's should find ample opportunities to collect secondary players. To help break it all down, here are the three most under-the-radar NBA players to be targeted before the deadline.
3. Harrison Barnes
The Sacramento Kings entered the year intent on ending their postseason drought that has stretched on for 13 seasons. While the emergence of rookie Tyrese Haliburton has raised Kings fans' hopes that the franchise may finally be on the verge of stability, Sacramento's fate in the 2021 season doesn't seem too far off from their previous results. Stymied by a defense that is giving up nearly 120 points per game, the Kings have few avenues to upgrade their roster significantly midseason, thanks to a cap sheet that is burdened by the big contracts of both Harrison Barnes and Buddy Hield.
Though the two players are not without their virtues, their advanced age compared to the rest of the Kings' core means that it may not make much sense for the organization to pay them premium money while the team is still stuck winning 35 games a year. Sacramento should therefore take the NBA's tepid trade market as an opportunity to unload at least one of the contracts that might otherwise require attaching a draft asset to be rid of.
While Hield may initially look more attractive, given that he is three years younger, his poor shooting streak and lack of defensive awareness mean that he might not be a playable option during the last five minutes of games. Just as important is that Hield, unlike Barnes, has a third-year attached to his contract valued at over $20 million.
Not only do the contract concerns make Barnes more tradable, but the forward would also bring a contender a wealth of postseason experience from his time with the Golden State Warriors. Combined with his reputation as a versatile defender and ability to space the floor with his shooting and cutting skills, Barnes is the archetype of the 3-and-D wing that so many teams prize. Though he may not bring back the wealth of assets that the Kings would prefer, Barnes should have no lack of suitors as the deadline draws near.
2. Andre Drummond
The initial acquisition of Andre Drummond by the Cleveland Cavaliers just a short year ago caused many observers to puzzle over the logic behind the move on the part of the Cavs. With the team mired in a rebuilding effort, many wondered what use Cleveland had with a 27-year old center on the verge of free agency. However, the truth is that the organization gave up two fringe rotation players for a flyer on a big man that once secured an All-NBA selection, raising the possibility that Drummond could undergo a renaissance in Northeast Ohio, capable of returning an even bigger dividend to the Cavaliers.
While the center hasn't quite reached those heights, he has been a reasonably productive player for a Cleveland team that unexpectedly finds itself in the playoff race.
In addition to earning a stat line of 18.5/ 15.1/ 2.7 on 47% shooting, Drummond has also rebounded nicely on the defensive side of the basketball after a subpar season last year. In pick-and-roll sequences in which he ends up as the primary defender, Drummond allows a respectable .8 points per possession, according to Synergy Sports, a decent improvement from the previous campaign. While he is still not deserving of inclusion on the NBA's All-Defensive team–let alone be on the shortlist for Defensive Player of the Year–the center boasts enough mobility against the speedier guards of the league that his shot-blocking ability at the rim isn't canceled out.
Drummond could be the perfect option for teams looking to boost their interior presence, specifically in bench-heavy units. Though initial reports have indicated that the Cavaliers may consider buying the center out following their trade for Jarrett Allen, Cleveland's relative success this year makes it unlikely that the team would part with a productive player to save a few million dollars.
Instead, look for the Cavaliers to receive a package similar to the one they gave Detroit last February to part with Andre Drummond.
1. P.J. Tucker
The moment James Harden departed Houston, the 35-year old P.J. Tucker became the most likely player to be traded this NBA season. In addition to providing nearly 40% shooting behind the arc, Tucker's skills on the defensive side of the basketball allow him to fit in virtually any lineup in the NBA.
Yet, while the guard possesses the lateral movement and size to match up anywhere on the court, it's his ability to direct teammates on defense that maximizes his value.
As several current Rockets players recently attested, Tucker's court awareness and willingness to conduct traffic while defending adds a dimension to his game that is difficult to quantify on the stat sheet. Watch any game that the guard participates in, and his almost supernatural ability to anticipate when the weakside help is supposed to come will almost certainly stand out.
Even though Houston currently finds itself with a respectable 10-9 record, the organization has been one the most aggressive in avoiding the league's middle tier. With the team possessing no realistic shot of moving back into the realm of contenders with their current roster and their cupboard mostly bare from the previous administration, the Rockets would be remiss to pass on the opportunity to gain future assets by holding onto Tucker, moral victories aside.
Should the market fail to heat up, the three second-round picks Houston is reportedly after in exchange for Tucker may end up being a floor rather than a ceiling in negotiations.
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