Taking fliers on high-risk, high-reward receivers late in drafts is a perfectly viable strategy in fantasy, but missing the target on wideouts within the first half of the draft often proves to be costly. While running back is often an extremely difficult position to project consistency at, a good amount of receivers provide solid weekly production, and that's why it's so important to make sure you aren't one of the few owners left without a decent return on value.
The five receivers on this list aren't necessarily bust candidates – they're simply receivers who are either due for regression from last year's production, or pose too great of risks to be inconsistent without the upside to justify ADP.
Without further ado, here are five receivers being overvalued by ADP in fantasy drafts for 2021 (PPR scoring).
5. Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP 32, WR12)
Evans finished as WR11 last year, and seems to be one of the safer options at receiver every year, as he's eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in every season he's played in. However, there's plenty of red flags heading into 2021. Evans played 5 games last year in which he scored less than 9 points (in PPR scoring!), and it would've been more had he not been buoyed by a career high 13 touchdowns. Now that Antonio Brown (only 4 games started in 2020) and Chris Godwin (missed 4 games) will be fully healthy to enter 2o21, there are simply too many mouths to feed in Tampa to hope Evans returns WR1 value. Godwin (WR17 ADP) and Brown (WR43) are much better draft values.
4. Adam Thielen – Minnesota Vikings (ADP 41, WR15)
Thielen has been a perennially undervalued player in fantasy drafts in years past, but it seems his pedigree has finally caught up to him. Though he was being drafted around WR20 just a few months ago, arguably a value at that price, WR15 at the borderline of WR2/WR1 territory is simply too much cost in 2021. Not only is Thielen due for some serious touchdown regression (14 TDs in 2020, previous career high of 9), but he's also likely to see even less volume than last year. Justin Jefferson is only going to get better and demand more targets as Minnesota's WR1, and, more importantly, the Minnesota defense is going to be a lot better, as Anthony Barr and Danielle Hunter will be healthy. Add in newly acquired Patrick Peterson and Mackenzie Alexander, and that means way less shootouts for the Vikings, and less passing attempts for Cousins to sling around. Take Thielen as a mid-to-low end WR2.
3. Michael Gallup – Dallas Cowboys (ADP 91, WR39)
Gallup certainly doesn't have the sky-high costs of the other receivers up this point, but he's certainly the most unexciting. After a breakout 2019 that saw him put up almost 80 receiving yards per game, 2020 saw him clearly relegated to the WR3 role in the Dallas offense. Even during the 5 weeks that Dak Prescott was healthy, Gallup finished with 12 or more fantasy points only once. He's certainly talented enough to explode for a big game every so often, but his situation gives him a rock-bottom floor that simply can't be trusted while CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are healthy. Look for guys like Antonio Brown, Marvin Jones (WR45), and D.J. Chark (WR42) with better prospects at lower ADPs.
2. A.J. Brown – Tennessee Titans (ADP 21, WR7)
Brown had a fantastic 2020, scoring 20 or more points in half of the games he played (7 out of 14), en route to a WR12 finish. However, he did finish 6th in FPPG (fantasy points per game). So what's not to like at a WR7 value? The answer's simple – Julio Jones and Derrick Henry. While Brown did thrive with Henry's presence last season, the run-heavy Tennessee offense adding Julio will make it extremely difficult for Brown to provide the weekly consistency that he did last year. Jones, contrary to popular belief, has not lost a step, as he was on pace for 1,371 yards had he played a full 16 games last year. He's too good not to command a significant target share, and, now that Brown will be more of a 1A receiver than a true No. 1, receivers like Justin Jefferson, Keenan Allen, and Terry McLaurin offer bigger upside and safer weekly floors than Brown at a lower ADP.
1. Kenny Golladay – New York Giants (ADP 63, WR25)
To me, Kenny Golladay simply hasn't offered the excitement at his ADP compared to several players below him. After being drafted as last season's WR7, he heads into 2021 being drafted as a low-end WR2 with the inconsistent Daniel Jones at quarterback, much more competition for targets than he's ever had (Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram), and now seems to be somewhat of an injury risk. His 11 touchdown 2019 seems more like an outlier than the norm (second-best total is 5), and it's hard to see him approaching that total in 2021 in what should be a run-first offense. Look for guys like Jerry Jeudy (WR30 ADP), Robby Anderson (WR32), and Devonta Smithm (WR36) at that range.
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