Kevin Durant explained on The Bill Simmons Podcast that each NBA All-Star receives slippers with stars representing their number of All-Star appearances. As a generation of perennial All-Star talent emerges, who will be rocking one-starred slippers at Staples Center in LA for the 2018 All-Star Game?
Last year, we saw four players make their first All-Star Game appearance (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker, and DeAndre Jordan). The year prior we saw four as well (Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Isaiah Thomas, and Andre Drummond).
We may see more than four in 2018. The well-documented shift in power from East to West has left spots up for grabs in the East, while budding superstar talent may not be able to wait its turn in the West.
A SHIFT IN POWER
Paul George, Jimmy Butler, and Paul Millsap — all Eastern Conference All-Stars in 2017 — moved from East to West. Gordon Hayward was the only 2017 Western Conference All-Star to move to the East.
Of the 24 players in last year’s All-Star game, 14 are in the West. This number does NOT include Western Conference stars Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and Damian Lillard, of which you figure at least one (and likely two) will make the squad in 2018. There are not as many glaring omissions in the East.
When you consider that Carmelo Anthony could very well move west also, this gap only widens. Of the 55 active players who have played in an All-Star game, a whopping 37 are in the West.
WHO WILL MAKE THEIR FIRST ALL-STAR APPEARANCE?
Honorable Mentions
The West is a bloodbath, and first-timers will have trouble finding spots on the All-Star roster. Up and coming talents like Nikola Jokic, CJ McCollum, Devin Booker, Harrison Barnes, and Rudy Gobert (yes, your All-NBA 2nd Team center) could find themselves on the outside looking in. Poor Mike Conley has deserved a spot for years, but may be further away from an All-Star game than ever despite playing some of the best basketball of his career (as we know, “Poor Mike Conley” is entering year two of a 5-yr/$153M deal).
The East has spots up for grabs with three All-Stars — or even four (cough Carmelo) or five (cough Kyrie) — leaving the conference. Some surprising names could find themselves in All-Star contention. Myles Turner and Victor Oladipo figure to have featured roles on the George-less Pacers. With Jabari Parker out until early-2018, Khris Middleton may thrive on a potentially scary Bucks team. Avery Bradley will shine in Detroit's guard rotation, and the often underrated Goran Dragic will continue to put up numbers for a competitive Miami team. Even Jeremy Lin or D’Angelo Russell could put up fringe All-Star numbers in Kenny Atkinson’s offense (Brooklyn is a team devoid of any other offensive creators) but guard spots will be hard to come by with John Wall, Kyrie Irving, Isaiah Thomas, Kyle Lowry, Demar Derozan, and Kemba Walker all making return bids.
So, who will be an All-Star for the first time in February 2018?
1. KARL-ANTHONY TOWNS
2016-17 Stats
| PTS | RBS | AST | BLK | STL | FG% | 3P% | FT% | TS% | PER |
| 25.1 | 12.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 54% | 37% | 83% | 62% | 25.9 |
Karl-Anthony Towns is the most likely of the crop of budding stars in the West to be named an All-Star next season. Minnesota should contend for a playoff spot this year, which will only help his case. Towns turns 22(!!) in November — I foresee him easily leap-frogging DeAndre Jordan on the totem pole of western bigs, and possibly even DeMarcus Cousins and Draymond Green if their respective teams’ dynamics place them in more complementary roles. After January 26th (basically half of the season) Towns averaged a staggering 28p/13r with shooting splits of 59/43/85 (on 3.2 3PA/game). If he comes even remotely close to matching this production on a sure-to-be-improved T’Wolves team, he’ll be a shoo-in for the All-Star Game.
2. BRADLEY BEAL
2016-17 Stats
| PTS | RBS | AST | BLK | STL | FG% | 3P% | FT% | TS% | PER |
| 23.1 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 48% | 40% | 88% | 60% | 20.1 |
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Bradley Beal pieced together his first fully healthy season in three years, and the results speak for themselves (he set career highs in points, assists, FG%, FT%, TS% and PER). His playoff performance — especially against Boston in the ECSF — showed he’s ready to make the leap. In a weakened Eastern Conference, Beal figures to be a standout performer on a Wizards team competing for a top-4 seed. Look for Beal to shine in the first half of next season, and for John Wall to prioritize getting him the ball in positions to score.
3. JOEL EMBIID
2016-17 Stats
| PTS | RBS | AST | BLK | STL | FG% | 3P% | FT% | TS% | PER |
| 20.2 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 47% | 37% | 78% | 58% | 24.1 |
The question with Joel Embiid is — and likely always will be — his health. The 76ers will manage his minutes wisely as he returns from a meniscus tear, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him sit out back-to-backs to start the year. When healthy, Embiid showed a near-unprecedented combo of size, skill, and athleticism. For a fleeting few weeks, he took the league by storm and was must-watch TV, dominating on both ends of the floor. Even if Embiid misses significant time with an injury, he is more likely to be healthy for the first half of the season than the second (which is all that matters when it comes to All-Star consideration). Healthy Embiid = All-Star appearance #1. Trust the Podiatrist, Trust the Process.
4. HASSAN WHITESIDE
2016-17 Stats
| PTS | RBS | AST | BLK | STL | FG% | 3P% | FT% | TS% | PER |
| 17.0 | 14.1 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 56% | – | 63% | 58% | 22.6 |
Hassan Whiteside’s NBA journey is as unconventional and improbable as any. He was awarded a big contract before last season, and now seems here to stay as a dominant paint presence in the Eastern Conference. Be it protecting the rim, dominating the glass, or rim-running on pick-and-rolls, Whiteside leaves his imprint on every game he plays. The Heat should be feisty this year, and will space the floor with Tyler Johnson, Dion Waiters, and Kelly Olynyk surrounding Dragic-Whiteside pick-and-rolls — the All-Star nod will go to Whiteside over Dragic due to the dearth of Eastern Conference bigs (Kevin Love? Al Horford? Andre Drummond?) compared to the glut of guards (Wall, Thomas, Lowry, etc.).
5. KRISTAPS PORZINGIS
2016-17 Stats
| PTS | RBS | AST | BLK | STL | FG% | 3P% | FT% | TS% | PER |
| 18.1 | 7.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 45% | 36% | 79% | 55% | 17.4 |
It was tough to leave Myles Turner off of this list, though I would rank Kristaps Porzingis as slightly more likely to make his first All-Star Game next season. Both are hyper-long bigs with nice shooting touch, and both will have more prominent roles with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony (likely) leaving their respective teams. I expect Porzingis to receive the lion’s share of the ~18 shots per game vacated by Carmelo, while George’s offensive output will be distributed more evenly between Turner, Oladipo, and Thaddeus Young. Porzingis is a surprisingly capable ball handler and isolation scorer (both in the post and on the perimeter) and his counting stats should bloat on a Knicks team lacking many other creators (Tim Hardaway Jr. and… Frank Ntilikina?) Phil Jackson’s unceremonious departure could rouse Porzingis’s inner alpha-dog — these factors, combined with the New York media market, make him a likely first-time All-Star.
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