The 2019 MLB season has already provided fans with an abundance of surprises. From the worrisome starts of the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs to the struggles of aces like Chris Sale and Aaron Nola to the continued red-hot play of Christian Yelich, there have been a number of notable storylines thus far.
Yet for all of the focus on the contenders that have gotten off to slow starts and the injuries that continue to hamper teams like the Yankees and Indians, one club has gotten off to what is–without a doubt–the most unfathomably hot start in baseball.
The Seattle Mariners were hardly shy about their intent to blow up a roster that had won 89 games and narrowly missed out on the playoffs in 2018.
General manager Jerry Dipoto traded ace James Paxton to the New York Yankees for star pitching prospect Jusus Sheffield and sent Robinson Cano and star closer Edwin Diaz to the Mets for a package centered around prospects Jarred Kelenic, Anthony Swarzak and Gerson Bautista.
Dipoto then traded shortstop Jean Segura to the Phillies for J.P. Crawford and Carlos Santana, who was promptly flipped in a three-team deal that brought Edwin Encarnacion to Seattle.
The Mariners would also trade Ben Gamel and catcher Mike Zunino for Domingo Santana and Mallex Smith, respectively. Dipoto finished the offseason by signing Japanese star pitcher Yusei Kikuchi and fillers like Tim Beckham and Hunter Strickland.
Seattle was a popular pick to fall towards the bottom of the American League West, but instead sit atop the MLB with an 11-2 record. How did this happen, and is it possible that they could be a winning ball club in the midst of a rebuild?
New players making a major impact
Tim Beckham was the no. 1 overall pick in the 2008 MLB Draft. He was rated as the top prospect in America and was sure to be the next big building block as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. That is, until he bottomed out.
Beckham would not reach the majors until 2013, and when he finally did, he failed to make a tangible impact with the Rays. In 2017, Beckham exploded after getting traded to the Baltimore Orioles, finishing that season with 22 homers and a .454 slugging percentage.
But last year, Beckham fell back on bad habits and saw his power zapped, registering a porous .661 OPS for an Orioles team that was one of the worst in MLB history.
However, Beckham is experiencing a renaissance in Seattle. The 29-year-old shortstop has exploded for four homers (two of which came off of Chris Sale) and is hitting .400 with a 1.314 OPS as of Wednesday. More impressively, he seems to have drastically improved his plate discipline, as his walk rate has doubled and his strikeout percentage has been cut in half thus far.
Though Beckham's redemption story is undoubtedly the most intriguing, his fellow teammates have also excelled. Domingo Santana is finally shining after being relegated to the bench as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers, also hitting four homers and posting a 1.047 OPS.
Encarnacion has joined the four-homer parade while posting a 1.090 OPS. Meanwhile, Swarzak has looked comfortable in his three appearances, and Kikuchi has shown some promise early on.
Things looked even bleaker for Seattle when they had to send both Hunter Strickland and third baseman Kyle Seager to the 60-day Injured List, but the team has instead responded by scoring a whopping 104 runs (by far the best in the MLB) and racking up a +40 run differential.
Is the pitching staff legitimate?
Even with Paxton, the Mariners' rotation was just 18th in the league in terms of WAR by position in 2018, according to Baseball-Reference, and they were 14th in total pitching WAR. Before play began on Wednesday they led the majors in pitching WAR.
Seattle made 27-year-old Marco Gonzales their starter Opening Day starter, and he has responded by recording wins in his first four starts while posting a 3.16 ERA. Mike Leake has had success keeping hitters off-balance by mixing in plenty of off-speed pitches, and should be effective if he can continue to avoid the long ball.
Kikuchi's slider looks like one of the better out pitches in the game early on, and if he can start to locate the fastball on a more regular basis, he should be able to set up the wipeout slider and generate some more punch-outs.
The keys to the rotation will be Wade LeBlanc and Felix Hernandez. LeBlanc was solid in his return to a starting role in 2018, but–like Leake–he also desperately needs to avoid serving up homers, which has been a fairly persistent problem in the past (career 1.3 HR/9 rate).
Hernandez's best days are clearly behind him, but he still has a chance to be effective. In a small sample size (two starts), Hernandez has a 2.45 FIP this season, which bodes well for how he is throwing the ball. If he can stay healthy, Hernandez could be a potential anchor for a unit that will need to hold up their end of the bargain.
Meanwhile, the bullpen looks solid in Diaz's absence. Swarzak will be one to monitor after posting an ERA over 6.00 with the Mets last season, but he looks fairly comfortable in a late-inning role. Brandon Brennan has been fantastic in his first shot at big-league action.
Zac Rosscup has been a little shaky early on, but he still has plenty of potential as a strikeout pitcher. The Mariners will have to sort of get by with a committee look while Strickland recovers, but so far that has not been a glaring issue.
Still room for improvement
Perhaps the craziest part about this Seattle club is that they still have options. Longtime prized prospect Daniel Vogelbach is practically forcing his way into a starting spot, hitting five homers in his first 22 at-bats while posting a 1.984 OPS as of Wednesday.
But current starting first baseman Ryon Healy is hardly a slouch, and Healy has hit three homers while slugging .615 so far.
Mallex Smith has the tools to be an elite centerfielder, but he is struggling to get going at the dish. So too is Mitch Haniger, who was one of the most underrated players in baseball last season and the only Mariner that was unavailable this past offseason.
Jay Bruce has hit an MLB-best seven homers, but he is also hitting just .188 and striking out in over 30 percent of his plate appearances.
So for all the potential regression that might be expected from the likes of Beckham and Santana as the season goes along, the Mariners can also hope for steadier all-around performances from their other core players.
It would still be extremely unlikely for the Mariners to be in the playoff hunt come September, but they certainly could be a winning ball club in spite of committing to a full-blown rebuild. And, if nothing else, that seems to bode well for the fans in Seattle.
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