The Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-1) take on the #25 Kansas State Wildcats (3-1) in a Big 12 matchup on Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 pm ET. Below we continue our College Football odds series with a Texas Tech-Kansas State prediction and pick.
Texas Tech is 3-1 through three weeks this season – their lone loss being in a hostile environment to the #10 ranked NC State Wolfpack. The Red Raiders are 1-0 in Big 12 play thanks to last week's victory over Texas. Tech took down Texas 37-34.
Kansas State sits at an identical 3-1 this season. In their only loss, the Wildcats were upset at home by Tulane by a score of 17-10. Kansas State is also 1-0 in the Big 12 this year thanks to last week's upset win over Oklahoma. The Wildcats are currently ranked 25th in the AP Poll.
Here are the Texas Tech-Kansas State college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Texas Tech-Kansas State Odds
Texas Tech Red Raiders: +7.5 (-106)
Kansas State Wildcats: -7.5 (-114)
Over: 57.5 (-105)
Under: 57.5 (-115)
Why Texas Tech Could Cover The Spread
The Red Raiders will look to take down their third-ranked opponent of the season on Saturday. Texas Tech has played a strong schedule and is in the midst of a gauntlet schedule run over ranked teams. The Red Raiders have defeated then 25th ranked Houston and 22nd ranked Texas.
A major factor when making a Texas Tech-Kansas State prediction is the Red Raider passing attack. Quarterback Donovan Smith is in the midst of his first full season as a starting quarterback and took some major strides in last week's upset over Texas. The 6'5 Sophomore threw for 331 yards and 2 touchdowns in the victory but what was especially important was how he took care of the ball. Smith completed 68% of his passes and did not throw an interception. In his previous two games against NC State and Houston Smith had a combined 5 interceptions. The dual-threat QB is a serious threat through the air and on the ground and could expose a Kansas State defense that conceded 330 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air last week.
Texas Tech has struggled against Kansas State historically, having won just once in their last eleven matchups. If they're going to tame the Wildcats it'll be because of improved play from their front seven. Last week the Texas Tech defense conceded 101 yards and 2 touchdowns to Texas running back Bijan Robinson. Kansas State has a much stronger rushing attack than the Longhorns. If they want to take down their third-ranked team of the season it'll happen because of their run defense.
Why Kansas State Could Cover The Spread
Kansas State has had an up-and-down season through four weeks. The Wildcats dominated South Dakota and Missouri in the opening weeks by a 74-12 margin but then were stunned at home to a now 2-2 Tulane team. They bounced back in a major way though, taking down 6th ranked Oklahoma in a massive road victory for the program.
Senior Quarterback Adrian Martinez has been a revelation for the Wildcats this season. The long-time Nebraska starter transferred to Kansas State for his graduate season. He's been efficient as a passer entering Week 5 – throwing for 538 yards with a 62% completion percentage. Where he's really shined, though, has been on the ground. The 5th-year has run for 298 yards this season and looks to easily surpass his career high of 629 yards. A huge chunk of that 298 came in last week's upset over Texas. In the victory, Martinez ran for 148 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Sooner defense had their hands full with Martinez's dual-threat prowess and that will be a major factor in Saturday's outcome.
Don't think Martinez is the only rusher on this Kansas State team, though. Junior running back Deuce Vaughn is the Big 12's leading rusher this season. The undersized back has run for 468 yards on 87 attempts this year – good for a 5.4-yard-per-attempt average. He's added 3 scores to his name as well. Vaughn is one of the nation's best backs and he forms a potent one-two punch with Adrian Martinez. Kansas State trails only the Air Force Academy in total rushing this season. Texas Tech has the nation's 27th-ranked run defense but has not faced an attack like Kansas State yet.
Final Texas Tech-Kansas State Prediction & Pick
This one is probably too close to call but I like Texas Tech to keep things within a touchdown on Saturday. Thanks to a strong strength of schedule thus far, the Red Raiders will be well prepared to enter a hostile environment in Kansas State. K-State may pull ahead late, but don't expect a blowout from either team.
Final Texas Tech-Kansas State Prediction & Pick: Texas Tech Red Raiders +7.5 (-106)
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