Nothing will sour your postseason prospects like an embarrassing road loss to the Washington Commanders. Dak Prescott was bad, the defense couldn't get off the field, and the special teams set the Dallas Cowboys behind the eight-ball before the game even got started. There was nothing to like about the Cowboys' performance in Washington, but that doesn't mean the season is over and it doesn't mean the sky is falling. Dallas must now look ahead to the Wild Card Round after getting the No. 5 seed in the NFL Playoffs, with Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers staring back at them. Let's make some bold Cowboys predictions for this playoff showdown against the Buccaneers.
Cowboys beat Tom Brady for the first time in his career
Tom Brady's career 7-0 record against the Cowboys is a big hurdle for Dallas to clear. Legendary quarterbacks like Brady or Aaron Rodgers have been a thorn in Dallas' side for years in the postseason. Slaying that dragon this year and getting the franchise's first road playoff win since 1992 would be a huge boost for the team at the outset of the postseason.
There are a lot of reasons to believe that this is the year Dallas does that. First of all, this isn't the Bucs squad that obliterated the Cowboys in this year's opener. They're banged up. Offensive linemen Ryan Jensen, Robert Hainsey and Nick Leverett plus safety Logan Ryan and nose tackle Vita Vea are all working their way back from various levels of injury ahead of Monday night. All those players being less than 100% plus the season-long loss of Shaq Barrett leaves the Bucs with a lot of question marks.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are as healthy as they've been all year.
Another reason the Cowboys should be optimistic Monday evening is Kellen Moore's track record for making adjustments upon seeing a defense for the second time. Look back at the Cowboys' first and second matchups with the Eagles and Giants. Dallas scored 23 and 17 points, respectively, against New York and Philly back at the beginning of the year. When the Cowboys crossed paths with their divisional opponents again, they scored 28 and 40, respectively.
Yes, Dak Prescott was available for the latter pair of games, but the offense as a whole was so much more potent once Moore had a game worth of tape to make a plan off of. He has that for Tampa Bay now as well. The Cowboys will win by a touchdown in the first round of these playoffs.
Dallas' second round is in San Francisco
Dallas' win over Tampa Bay won't be the only “upset” in the first round. The San Francisco 49ers will cruise past Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks, but keep an eye on the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants. The last time those two teams met on Christmas Eve, the Vikings squeaked by with a 27-24 win. That game was in Minneapolis.
The Giants have played good football lately, spurred on by some of the best quarterbacking Daniel Jones has done in his career. Sprinkle in whatever level of belief you have in Kirk Cousins' nationally televised games curse and suddenly this looks like a tough game for the Vikings to win at home.
So, what does a win for New York in Minnesota mean for the Cowboys? It means their toughest opponent comes up in Round 2. The Giants would head to Philadelphia to play their third game of the season with the Eagles, while Dallas would go to San Fran to take on the team that bounced them from last year's playoffs.
We've seen a lot of positives in a short amount of time from Brock Purdy, but we still haven't seen him in the postseason. That's a big test that Mr. Irrelevant still has to pass, but he would have to fail it pretty extraordinarily to drag the 49ers down significantly. For Dallas, the path to the Super Bowl almost definitely runs through San Francisco sooner or later. Don't be shocked if the Giants make it sooner.
Mike McCarthy is not coaching for his job
The Cowboys are one of the few franchises in the NFL that can arguably claim that every year is a “Super Bowl or bust” type year. That might not have been the sentiment at the beginning of this season, but the Cowboys placed themselves amongst the best teams in the NFC as the year wore on.
The team is set to change a lot after this year. Tony Pollard will be a free agent and Ezekiel Elliott might be a cap casualty because of his pricey contract. Dalton Schultz is liable to leave if Dallas isn't willing to commit long term, Tyron Smith doesn't have much longer in the league, and Leighton Vander Esch is due for another contract as well.
There's a lot of pressure on Mike McCarthy to win this year because there's no telling what the team looks like next year, plus Cowboys fans are starving for postseason success in general. Some might think that McCarthy needs to win multiple games this postseason to keep his job, but that is unlikely to be the case.
The Cowboys have won 30 games in the last three years under McCarthy. Postseason success trumps anything that could be accomplished in the regular season, but that level of success especially amidst a lot of injury turmoil at quarterback during that period should give McCarthy plenty of job security. If the Cowboys go out to Tampa Bay and lay an egg that might change, but don't expect the Cowboys to make a change at head coach unless a real tragedy occurs in the first round of these playoffs.
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