The start of the 2023 NFL season is less than ten days away, but for fantasy football, the start has been upon us for quite some time. Drafts have been getting underway for weeks, and if you haven't drafted yet, you may want to figure that out, because the season is right around the corner.
The wide receiver position for fantasy football owners is typically a gold mine, and if you can get a wideout who puts up big numbers on a weekly basis, chances are you will be in a good spot. Especially in PPR leagues, having two or three high-volume wide receivers is an easy way to put up bunches of points on a weekly basis.
While there are tons of good receivers available heading into drafts, there are also a decent amount of wideouts who will likely see a decrease in production in 2023 due to a smaller volume of targets. Let's take a look at five such receivers who fall in that category, and see why they will be losing targets this upcoming season.
5. CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2022 once he took over as the Cowboys lead wide receiver, and that's a role he should be set to employ again in 2023. Lamb was a fantastic pick for fantasy football owners last year (107 REC, 1359 YDS, 9 TD), and he is almost always coming off of the board in the second round of drafts.
Lamb received a whooping 156 targets last year, but that will surely go down with the addition of Brandin Cooks, who was picked up in a trade with the Houston Texans over the offseason. Cooks shouldn't deter you from drafting Lamb, but chances are he isn't going to be receiving 150 targets now that he has another top-tier wide receiver working alongside him on offense.
4. Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
Darnell Mooney entered the 2022 season as the Chicago Bears clear cut top wide receiver. Heading into 2023, Mooney may not ever be worth drafting for fantasy owners. Mooney endured a disappointing 2022 campaign with the Bears (40 REC, 493 YDS, 2 TD), and it doesn't seem like things will be getting any better for him in 2023.
For starters, Justin Fields is still a very inconsistent passer, which immediately limits his upside. Beyond that, D.J. Moore and Chase Claypool now also sit on the wide receiver depth chart alongside Mooney, and Cole Kmet lurks at tight end. Mooney received only 61 targets in 12 games last year, and it doesn't seem like things will be better, even if he manages to stay healthy for a full season.
3. Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
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Deebo Samuel never really seemed to get off on the right foot in 2022, and he labored through a rough campaign just a year after he seemingly revolutionized offense in the NFL as a hybrid wide receiver/running back combo. Samuel was productive (56 REC, 632 YDS, 2 TD, 42 CAR, 232 YDS, 3 TD), but he didn't come anywhere close to reaching the heights he hit in 2021.
Samuel has watched Brandon Aiyuk emerge as arguably the team's top wide receiver option, and even worse, with Christian McCaffrey on board, he's going to lose targets and carries to the talented dual-threat running back. Samuel still is an explosive wide receiver option, but his fantasy prospects are not as glamorous as they once were.
2. Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
You've got to give Terry McLaurin props. He's found a way to become a consistently productive wide receiver, despite dealing with subpar quarterback play throughout his first four seasons in the league with the Washington Commanders. McLaurin put together another strong campaign in 2022 (77 REC, 1191 YDS, 5 TD), and remains the Commanders top wide receiver.
The issue for McLaurin is the development of Jahan Dotson, who shined as a rookie and seems destined to take a big step forward in 2023. McLaurin and Dotson may become more equal in terms of production, and even then, there's a massive question mark at quarterback in Sam Howell. McLaurin should still be a viable fantasy football option, but it may not be safe to count on the same level of production from him this upcoming season.
1. Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
Christian Kirk made everyone who was hating on his four-year, $72 million deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency last year look foolish with his breakout campaign in 2022. Kirk was the best receiver in a Jaguars offense that had a ton of options at their disposal (84 REC, 1108 YDS, 8 TD), and with Jacksonville's offense continuing to improve, Kirk should remain a viable fantasy option.
Kirk will almost certainly see a downtick in targets thanks to the return of Calvin Ridley, who was picked up at the trade deadline last year in the middle of his season-long suspension. Ridley is a superstar talent at wide receiver, and he will significantly eat into Kirk's target share. Trevor Lawrence has familiarity with Kirk for sure, but there's no shot that Kirk receives 133 targets in 2023 now that Ridley is in Jacksonville.
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