The Miami Heat are set to start their second-round duel in the 2020 NBA Playoffs against the top team of the Eastern Conference – the Milwaukee Bucks. Both the Heat and the Bucks took care of business in their respective first-round matchups relatively easily. The Bucks eliminated the Orlando Magic in just five games while the Heat swept the fourth-seeded Indiana Pacers which make both teams rested and ready for an intense upcoming series.
Though the top-seeded Bucks have posted the league-best record of 56-17, the gritty Miami squad have shown signs thus far that they do not “Fear The Deer”. With Jimmy Butler leading the way, the Heat has managed to become one of the toughest teams not just in the East but the entire league and this toughness allowed them to get huge regular-season wins against Milwaukee. During the regular season, these two teams have already met thrice with the Heat coming up on top twice. They now enjoy a 2-1 series advantage over Giannis Antetokounmpo's squad coming into the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals.
What's been the key X-factor for Miami over the Bucks all-season long? It's their three-point shooting.
Miami has been the second-best three-point shooting team this season – shooting at an efficient rate of 37.9%. Something that poses quite a problem for the Milwaukee. With Antetokounmpo anchoring the Bucks' defense this season, they've managed to come out as the regular season's best defensive team. But if there's one thing that the Bucks defense has gotten wrong, it's their inability to limit their opponent's three-pointers. Milwaukee has given up the most threes in the league all-season long (39.3) which Miami will need to exploit. Fortunately for Miami, they've managed to improve their three-point shooting in the playoffs to a 39.1% after their first-round sweep of the Pacers.
This was something we've seen in their first three regular-season match-ups this season. In their three games so far in 2019 and 2020, Miami converted 55/127 three-pointers against the Bucks and, per NBA Advanced Stats, 104 of those three-pointers were wide-open looks. It also doesn't help the Bucks' cause that Miami's Duncan Robinson has been red-hot from the arc in all of their three regular-season meetings.
Robinson might also be one of the key players that can help the Heat upset the Bucks. The stretch forward has been one of the best three-point shooters in the league this season, averaging .446% from long distance which is fourth-best in the league. Robinson contributed heavily for the Heat in their three games so far against the Bucks this season. The second-year forward has knocked down 11 of his 21 (52.3%) attempts from downtown in all three games.
Given the length of the Bucks, the Heat must try to stay as efficient as possible from deep since scoring around the rim won't be a walk in the park against the league's reigning MVP and newly-awarded Defensive Player of the year in Antetokounmpo. Even though starting center Bam Adebayo has been killing it for Miami all season long, it'll be tough for the 23-year old to dominate amid the Bucks' frontcourt defense. Milwaukee has managed to limit their opponents to 55.2% shooting clip inside the paint so Adebayo and the rest of the Miami bigs will definitely have to move the ball around and kick it out to the wings.
Who's ready for this upcoming dog fight?
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