There is no bigger stage in all of college basketball than the NCAA Finals. Tonight, Jordan Hawkins of the UCONN Huskies stares down the San Diego State Aztecs' defense. It's time to continue our March Madness odds series with a special Jordan Hawkins Over/Under Points prediction and pick.
On the season, Hawkins is the second leading scorer for this Huskies team, averaging 16.2 points per game. For the tournament, he has averaged 16.4 points per game but has been held under 15 points in three of the five games. Facing San Diego State is not an easy task though, as they are ranked 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation this year. Hawkins has all the tools and talent to hit the over, but will San Diego State shut him down?
Here are the latest player prop March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Jordan Hawkins Over/Under Points
Over: 14.5 (-120)
Under: 14.5 (-102)
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Why Jordan Hawkins Will Go Over In Points
First, there has to be reasoning why Hawkins did not go over 14.5 points in three of his last five games. First is the Iona game, where he only had 13 points. This one looks more like an anomaly, as Hawkins shot very poorly. He went 3-11 from the field against Iona, but UCONN also placed most of its offensive focus on Sanogo. Iona could not stop the UCONN big man, as he went 13-17. Saint Mary's was also an under, but Hawkins was limited in minutes due to foul trouble. He shot well in that one but had very limited opportunities. The last one was against Miami. He shot fair overall but was also sick. Apparently, he had food poisoning from some bad calamari and almost did not play.
Hawkins is shooting well from the three-point arc currently. He is shooting 41.5% on the tournament from three, and San Diego State's defense just got exposed by FAU behind the arc. He is also doing great from the line. If the Aztecs foul him, Hawkins will make them pay. He has only missed two free throws this tournament, going 19-21 from the charity stripe.
Hawkins has also performed well against top-quality defenses before. The closest teams to San Diego State that Hawkins has faced this year are Creighton and Alabama. Creighton sits 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency on the year, and Hawkins scored 11 and 17 against them. Alabama is ranked third, and early in the season, Hawkins put together a 16-point outing against them. Even against top-quality defenses, he has gone over two out of the three times.
Why Jordan Hawkins Will Go Under In Points
Nerves may be a factor here. This is the biggest stage of his career, and it has just been shown in the tournament that nerves can be a factor for Hawkins. Hawkins was not on the floor for the 2022 tournament game for UCONN, so his game against Iona was his first-ever tournament game. He did not score a bucket in the first half, going 0-6. This may be a trend for him. In the first game this year, he went 0-4 and missed the first shot of his second game before getting a bucket. The same thing happened in the 2021-22 campaign, as he started 0-3 and took until his second game to get a three-pointer to fall. If Hawkins does not get started early, he may not hit the over.
The second reason for the under may be the pace of play. Both teams like to play at a slower tempo, with San Diego State liking to play a half-court game with a swarming defense. There may just not be enough opportunities for Hawkins to get enough shots off to get to 14.5 points. This year to get to his 16.2 points per game average, Hawkins took 12 shots per game. The most comparable team to the Aztecs that Hawkins has faced this year is Butler, and while he got over 12 shots in each of those, he went under 14.5 points in one, and Butler is not the level of defense the Aztecs are.
Finally, if the Aztecs defend the perimeter like they had been doing before FAU, then that could be an issue for Hawkins. He had a 38.6% three-point shot this year, averaging three makes per game. If that drops just one, the under could easily hit unless he gets to the line a lot.
Final Over/Under Points Prediction & Pick
Hawkins is a key part of this offense for UCONN, but not the only major player. Sanogo is the major offensive force for UCONN, and if San Diego State wants to win, he needs to be their focus first. This should give Hawkins plenty of room to shoot. He will get his opportunities, and if the over is going to hit, it should be early. Tonight, Hawkins hits three from deep and skates by on the over.
Final Jordan Hawkins Over/Under Points Prediction: 16 points
Final Jordan Hawkins Over/Under Points Pick: Over 14.5 (-120)
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