The Milwaukee Brewers and the San Francisco Giants will begin a three-game series on Monday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Brewers-Giants prediction and pick.
The Brewers come into this series as one of the most secure division leaders in the MLB. Milwaukee leads the NL Central by 8.5 games, comfortably ahead of the Cincinnati Reds. They essentially have the division title locked up barring a major meltdown, but the same can't be said for the Giants. San Francisco is holding on to a 2.5 game lead in the NL West, barely staying ahead of the rival Los Angeles Dodgers. Because the race for first place is so close, every game the Giants play holds huge implications. It will be interesting to see if San Francisco can hold their lead over the Dodgers as they face a fellow first-place team.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Monday's game.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Giants Odds
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-133)
San Francisco Giants ML (+123)
Over 7 1/2 runs (-106)
Under 7 1/2 runs (-114)
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
As usual, the Brewers will rely on their pitching to win this game. Typically that strategy isn't a sustainable one, but Milwaukee's rotation is one of the best in the MLB. The best member of that rotation will get the start on Monday when Corbin Burnes takes the hill.
Burnes has had a Cy Young-level season, earning a 2.30 ERA and a .95 WHIP on the year. There isn't another pitcher in the MLB that can rival those numbers. He's already faced the Giants once this season, pitching seven innings of one run ball against this San Francisco lineup that is one of the best in baseball. Burnes has also dominated most of the Giants' hitters individually, as six of the projected starters in the San Francisco lineup own a career batting average of .167 or lower against Burnes. It's not unfair to expect another elite performance from the best pitcher in baseball.
Luckily for this Milwaukee lineup, they won't be facing a pitcher who's anywhere nearly as good as Burnes. Johnny Cueto will take the mound for the Giants, something that these Brewers hitters should be happy to see. Six Brewers starters own a career batting average of .250 or higher against Cueto, and the Giants' starter's lone outing against the Brew Crew didn't go well. Cueto pitched five innings and gave up four runs in the process.
Why The Giants Could Cover The Spread
San Francisco is far more well-rounded than the Brewers are thanks to their high-powered offense. The Giants rank inside the top ten in baseball in batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS. The offense had these numbers before the trade deadline, but the addition of star third baseman Kris Bryant only made them better. Burnes is an elite pitcher, but he's facing an elite lineup in San Francisco.
Johnny Cueto has had a surprisingly decent season so far. Over the course of the year, he's posted a 3.73 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Those aren't spectacular numbers, but they're more than serviceable, especially against an underwhelming Brewers offense. Milwaukee ranks inside the bottom ten in baseball in batting average and slugging percentage while ranking just below average in most other major batting statistics. This isn't an intimidating offense, and Cueto should be able to recover from his poor outing against this team earlier in the year and put together a good performance.
Final Brewers-Giants Prediction & Pick
This is a tough pick, but the Brewers should come out on top. Picking against Burnes is an intimidating prospect, especially when the Brewers hitters get to face Johnny Cueto. There aren't many great options on the board, but Milwaukee's money line is the best of a bad bunch.
FINAL PICK: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-133)
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