The San Diego Padres will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the final contest of a three-game series on Sunday afternoon. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Padres-Dodgers prediction and pick.
Another day, another meaningful game between NL West opponents. Two consecutive losses to the Dodgers have the Padres tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the last playoff berth. A win in this game would be a huge help for the Padres' postseason chances, as the Wild Card is essentially the only chance they have of making the playoffs.
The Dodgers, on the other hand, have aspirations of winning the division. Los Angeles still trails the rival San Francisco Giants by 2.5 games, making every game incredibly meaningful. The Giants are lucky enough to face the Chicago Cubs on Sunday, so the Dodgers will likely need a win to keep the deficit at 2.5 games.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the odds for Sunday's game.
MLB Odds: Padres-Dodgers Odds
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San Diego Padres +1 1/2 (-140)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1 1/2 (+120)
Over 7 1/2 runs (+102)
Under 7 1/2 runs (-122)
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
San Diego actually has a starter to rival Dodgers ace Max Scherzer in this one. Pitcher Blake Snell's numbers may not seem at all comparable to Scherzer's, and his year-long stats aren't. But when we take a closer look at Snell's last seven games, it's clear that he's pitching his best baseball right now. Over his last seven appearances, the lefty has earned a 1.85 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP. Those are incredible numbers, and that level of pitching is likely to continue against the Dodgers. Snell has already faced Los Angeles four times this season, pitching a combined 22 innings against LA while only giving up five runs.
Scherzer has obviously had a fantastic season, but there's some reason to think that the Padres can get to him in this one. Five of San Diego's projected starters in this game own a career batting average of .250 or higher against Scherzer. Two of Scherzer's few bad outings came against the Padres, as he got crushed for seven runs in four innings against San Diego in July. The Padres are clearly comfortable facing Scherzer, as surprising as that may be.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover The Spread
Despite Scherzer's poor history against San Diego, it's hard to discount the fact that he's pitching at a Cy Young-worthy level. Much like Snell, his last seven starts have shown Scherzer to be nearly unhittable when he's pitching his best baseball. Over that span, the righty posted a 1.05 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP. Scherzer is also better when he plays on his home turf, shown by the fact that his ERA and WHIP both improve significantly when playing in front of a friendly crowd.
While the Dodgers have struggled against Snell in the past, they're still one of the best offensive units in MLB. Los Angeles ranks inside the top 10 in baseball in OPS, OBP, and slugging percentage. The Dodgers have also shown themselves to be reasonably comfortable facing this San Diego bullpen. It's hard to count this offense out, no matter how poor a matchup looks for them.
Final Padres-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
The Padres should be underdogs, but the lines should be much closer than they are. Snell has been pitching the same level of baseball as Scherzer, and San Diego has shown an ability to hit Mad Max. Take the Padres to cover with confidence in this one, and a bet on their moneyline is a risky but acceptable play as well.
FINAL PICK: San Diego Padres +1 1/2 (-140)
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