The Minnesota Twins and the Texas Rangers will clash in Arlington as the two AL teams meet in a sizzling showdown on Saturday. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Twins-Rangers prediction and pick.
The Rangers rallied to beat the Twins 6-5 at Globe Life Field in Arlington. Things started badly for the Rangers in the first inning when Carlos Correa blasted a two-run bomb into the seats in left field. It was his 10th in 2022, giving the Twins an early 2-0 lead. The Rangers trailed 3-0 entering the fifth when the magic began.
After hitting Mitch Garver with the bases loaded to bring in a run, the Twins surrendered two more runs on a sacrifice fly and an RBI single. Ultimately, it brought Corey Seager to the plate with two runners on. Seager blasted a three-run bomb into the seats in right field. The home run was his 16th in 2022, giving the Rangers a 6-3 lead, finishing a monster six-run inning. The Twins fought back in the sixth when Ryan Jeffers clobbered a two-run bomb to left field, cutting the deficit to 6-5. Ultimately, that would be all, as the Rangers held on to win.
Devin Smeltzer will go for the Twins today. Smeltzer is 4-2 with a 3.04 ERA. He allowed three earned runs on six hits in his last start, all solo home runs, over six innings. Smeltzer is 2-1 with a 4.10 ERA over five starts on the road. He has a 4.32 ERA with six strikeouts, and a save in two relief appearances against the Rangers.
Martin Perez is 7-2 with a 2.34 ERA. Perez is 4-2 with a 2.14 ERA over eight starts at Globe Life Field. He went 6 2/3 innings in his last start, allowing three earned runs on seven hits, including two home runs. However, he is 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA in eight career games, five starts, against the Twins in his career.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Twins-Rangers odds:
MLB odds: Twins-Rangers Odds
Twins: +1.5 (-205)
Rangers: -1.5 (+168)
Over: 8.5 (-102)
Under: 8.5 (-120)
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Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
The Twins count on Byron Buxton and Correa to get the job done offensively.
Buxton is batting .218 with 22 home runs, 40 RBIs, and 46 runs scored. Likewise, Buxton is batting .226 with 11 home runs, 19 RBIs, and 21 runs scored since June 1. He will give the Twins a home run or go 0 for 4. There likely is no in-between with Buxton. He is batting .256 with two home runs, 12 RBIs, and 14 runs scored over 22 career games against the Rangers. Likewise, Buxton is batting .250 with one home run, four RBIs, and six runs scored over nine games at Globe Life Field.
Correa is batting .286 with 10 home runs, 31 RBIs, and 36 runs scored. He is batting .293 with seven home runs, 15 RBIs, and 19 runs scored since June 1. Thus, his average has remained consistent while his power has risen. Correa knows the Rangers well, having played in the same division as them for years. He is batting .273 with 20 home runs, 64 RBIs, and 63 runs scored over 92 games against the Rangers. Likewise, he is batting .284 with 11 home runs, 33 RBIs, and 30 runs scored in 45 games at Globe Life Field.
The Twins cover the spread if they get a good game out of their pitcher. Additionally, they need Buxton and Correa to produce at the plate.
Why The Rangers Could Cover The Spread
The Rangers do not have much offense but have some gems in Seager and Adolis Garcia. Seager is batting .237 with 17 home runs, 42 RBIs, and 41 runs scored in 2022. Additionally, he is batting .264 with 11 home runs, 23 RBIs, and 22 runs scored in 36 games at home. Seager is batting .244 with six home runs, 18 RBIs, and 16 runs scored over 36 games since June 1.
Garcia is batting .252 with 15 home runs, 51 RBIs, and 47 runs scored in 2022. Likewise, he has been better at home, where he is batting .277 with 10 home runs, 31 RBIs, and 24 runs scored in 36 games at Choctaw Stadium. Garcia is clipping .289 with seven home runs, 20 RBIs, and 20 runs scored in 32 games since June 1.
The Rangers will cover the spread if Perez continues his mastery and the offense produces behind him. Likewise, Seager and Garcia must do their jobs, and the Rangers must avoid mistakes that put them in an early hole.
Final Twins-Rangers Prediction & Pick
Perez is solid at home and has quietly put together a good season. Smeltzer is not as great on the road. It influences the decision to go with the Rangers. The Twins covered the spread last night despite having a significant disadvantage in the pitching department. However, it will not happen two nights in a row. The Rangers cover the spread, picking up another win over the Twins.
Final Twins-Rangers Prediction & Pick: Rangers: -1.5 (+168)
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