The New York Yankees and New York Mets will finish up the Subway Series on Sunday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Yankees-Mets prediction and pick.
Both of these New York teams are entering make-or-break stretches of their seasons. The Yankees are pretty much done for in the AL East, as they trail the Tampa Bay Rays by a full 10 games. However, their hopes for a Wild Card berth are still alive. The Yankees are currently tied with the Toronto Blue Jays for the last Wild Card seed in the AL, so every game obviously carries a lot of weight for them.
Despite sitting just below .500, the Mets are five games back in the NL East and four back of a Wild Card spot. Every win is huge for both teams, so expect to see all the stops pulled out on Sunday Night Baseball.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Sunday's game.
MLB Odds: Yankees-Mets Odds
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New York Yankees ML (+108)
New York Mets ML (-118)
Over 8 1/2 runs (-115)
Under 8 1/2 runs (-105)
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
The Mets will send out starter Carlos Carrasco in this game, something that hasn't worked out well for them recently. Over his last seven starts, Carrasco has pitched to the tune of a 6.37 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Carrasco also seems to struggle when pitching at home, as he has posted a 7.45 ERA when defending his home turf. Those numbers indicate a level of pitching that almost anyone can hit, so the Yankees shouldn't have any trouble in this matchup.
The Yankees will entrust Sunday's start to pitcher Clarke Schmidt. Schmidt doesn't have many inspiring stats, but there are some numbers that indicate a leg up on this poor Mets offense. The Mets are actually worse against right-handed pitching than they are against lefties, earning a lower batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS. The Mets have been one of the worst offensive teams in MLB this season, so a good performance from Schmidt isn't out of the question.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
It may seem like Schmidt has the upper hand in this matchup, but that's not the case at all. This game will mark the righty's fourth start of the season, and his first three haven't been inspiring. Over those appearances, Schmidt has posted a 7.11 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP. The Mets haven't been good on offense, but Schmidt has been abysmal in his only games this season, so it's fair to expect a solid offensive showing from the Mets.
There are also some positive signs for Carrasco as he heads into this crucial game. The Yankees are much worse offensively when they face a right-handed pitcher, earning a lower team batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS against righties. September has also been a terrible month for the Bronx Bombers, as they're only earning a .213 batting average over the last week and a half.
Final Yankees-Mets Prediction & Pick
It's hard to pick either team with confidence in this game, making the over the best pick on the board. With such shaky pitching situations, it's easy to imagine one of these squads breaking the over on their own.
FINAL PICK: Over 8 1/2 runs (-115)
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