The Milwaukee Bucks play their second straight road game Friday night, traveling to the Big Easy to face off with the New Orleans Pelicans. Itâs time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Bucks-Pelicans prediction and pick.
The Bucks hold an overall record of 11-6, and they are 8-9 against the spread. Milwaukee is coming off a win over the Toronto Raptors.
The Pelicans stand at 6-10 both overall and against the spread. In the Pelicans' most recent game, they blew out the Washington Wizards.
Hereâs how sportsbooks have set the opening Bucks-Pelicans odds.
NBA Odds: Bucks-Pelicans Odds
Milwaukee Bucks -7 (-109)
New Orleans Pelicans +7 (-111)
Over 230 Points (-110)
Under 230 Points (-110)
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
The biggest advantage for the Bucks in this game will be their knock-down shooting. Milwaukee is fourth in the league in three-point percentage, connecting on the fifth-most three-pointers in the NBA.
The Bucks have a whopping eight players attempting at least three 3-pointers a game. Five of those eight are connecting at a 40% rate or better.
This is a recipe for disaster for a Pelicans team that has not guarded the perimeter all year.
New Orleans has allowed the most three-pointers in the league, giving up the eight-highest shooting percentage from deep.
If Milwaukee's shooters drain their open looks, which they'll get plenty of tonight, the Bucks are going to run up a point total that the Pelicans can not keep up with.
On the defensive end, Milwaukee will focus on locking down the paint, as New Orleans has yet to burn anyone from deep.
The Pelicans depend on a healthy dose of put-backs from Zion Williamson and Steven Adams, as well as mid-range jumpers from Brandon Ingram to keep their offense afloat.
Against a Bucks team that cleans the boards at a healthy rate and boasts a handful of perimeter defenders with size to throw at Ingram, it's hard to see the Pelicans getting buckets tonight.
Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
The Pelicans need to execute in two areas tonight in order to pull off the upset: Slowing Giannis Antetokounmpo and getting someone other than Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram going.
Slowing the reigning MVP is easier said than done, but the Pelicans have a shot at it with their lengthy roster.
Surprisingly, the Pelicans' defense inside of the three-point line has been solid. New Orleans has allowed the third-least field goals made, and they are only two spots below the Bucks' defense in opponent field-goal percentage.
This will be key against Giannis, whose struggles from beyond the arc are well documented. With a stiff interior defense, the Pelicans should have a chance at limiting the Giannis drive and kicks and easy finishes at the rim that propel the Bucks offense.
Offensively, the Pelicans are led by Ingram and Williamson, who both average 23.9 points a game. After the star duo, the scoring drops off significantly. The next leading scorer for New Orleans is Eric Bledsoe, who averages 13.1 points.
Against a Bucks team that has multiple offensive weapons, Ingram and Williamson can't get it done by themselves. Perhaps Bledsoe can get it going on the offensive end in his revenge game against Milwaukee.
With a little help from role players and a focused effort on Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Pels could stick around in this one.
Final Bucks-Pelicans Prediction & Pick
The key factor here for me is the huge difference in three-point shooting. If the Bucks do run out to a big lead quickly, the Pelicans don't have the weapons to make a comeback. I'll take Milwaukee to open up a lead and never look back, as I predict the Pelicans will struggle to score once again tonight. Bucks by double-digits.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: MIL 120, NOP 104 (MIL -7)
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