The Los Angeles Lakers face off against the Denver Nuggets for the second time this season on Sunday night. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Lakers-Nuggets prediction and pick.
The Lakers currently hold an overall record of 21-6, but they are only 13-14 against the spread. The Lakers are coming off a comeback win against the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Nuggets stand at 14-11 and are 11-14 against the spread. Denver’s last game was a close win against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Lakers-Nuggets odds.
NBA Odds: Nuggets vs. Lakers Odds
Los Angeles Lakers -3 (-110)
Denver Nuggets +3 (-110)
Over 217 Points (-110)
Under 217 Points (-110)
Why The Lakers Could Cover The Spread
The last time these two faced, the Lakers used smothering defense to turn a large halftime deficit into an impressive victory. The Purple and Gold gave up 58 points to the Nuggets in the first half before hunkering down to limit Denver to only 35 in the second half.
This type of defensive effort has the Lakers on a seven-game winning streak, and they continue to hold the best defensive rating in the league.
Two facets of the Lakers' defensive effort have been particularly impressive: Their perimeter and individual defense.
Over their seven-game streak, the Lakers have allowed a single opponent to score 30 points only twice: Once to Jayson Tatum and once to Jerami Grant, who accomplished the feat in overtime.
The Lakers will look to continue this trend against Nikola Jokic, who has spearheaded the Denver offense all season. If Jokic doesn't have a huge night, it'll be tough for the Nuggets to get enough production on the offensive end to crack the tough Lakers defense.
Los Angeles has done an excellent job of shutting down the 3-point line, which will be important against a Nuggets offense that is 10th in 3-point percentage.
The Lakers have allowed the fewest 3-pointers in the league and held opponents to the third-lowest percentage from downtown.
If the Lakers win this game, it'll be won on the defensive end. Look for L.A. to set the tone early and avoid having to play from behind yet again.
Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
A glance at the box score from the first time these two teams met this season can be misleading.
It shows a 21-point Lakers victory, but the game wasn't a blowout until the closing minutes and Denver has some positives to take away from the matchup to integrate on Sunday.
For one, the Nuggets held Anthony Davis to a measly 13 points, his lowest scoring outing of the entire season. They forced Davis to take tough shots all game, and Jokic played some great individual defense on The Brow as well.
Denver will look to replicate the feat, but perhaps The Joker will get a bit of a breather and Paul Millsap will get more minutes on AD. The Nuggets badly need Jokic to be a force on the offensive end, and having him match up with a less intimidating big man like Marc Gasol could help conserve energy.
Another feat Denver will look to replicate from the last matchup is a first-half offensive outburst.
The Nuggets scored 58 points in the first half and went 5-of-13 from 3-point range. After the first-half buzzer sounded, Denver shot 3-of-15 from beyond in the next two quarters.
While some credit goes to the Lakers for locking down the 3-point line, the Nuggets were also missing plenty of good looks. It's very unlikely Denver goes this cold again, especially at home.
Look for the Nuggets to come out with aggression for the second straight matchup and make this a much closer game this time around.
Final Lakers-Nuggets Prediction & Pick
While there are three huge names marked as questionable right now (Jamal Murray, LeBron James, Anthony Davis), let's assume all three will play. If this happens, the Lakers should have enough offensive firepower to get by the Nuggets.
It's hard to see Anthony Davis playing any worse than he did in the last meeting, and the Lakers still came out on top. The thin air in Denver could up the fatigue factor against a team that has played three overtime games over the last week, but the Nuggets play at the third-slowest pace in the league. With a full day off before this matchup, the Lakers should have the upper hand here.
This game could come down to the wire in Denver, so I'll stay away from the spread (even though it's small), but I'm confident in the Lakers ultimately winning this game.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: LAL 108, DEN 104 (LAL ML)
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