The Oklahoma City Thunder look to hold onto the final spot in the play-in tournament as they head to visit the Indiana Pacers tonight. We continue our NBA odds series with a Thunder- Pacers prediction, pick, and how-to watch
The Thunder are 6-4 in their last ten games and currently sit a game up on the Mavericks for the final play-in game spot. They are also only two games behind the Warriors for the sixth seed, which would allow them to dodge the play-in games. With games against the Suns, Warriors, Jazz, and Grizzlies left, this is the most winnable game for the Thunder on the schedule. The Pacers are 3.5 games out now and only have five left to play. A loss tonight, combined with a Bulls win will all but eliminate them from contention.
Here are the Thunder-Pacers NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Thunder-Pacers Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder: -2.5 (-110)
Indiana Pacers: 2.5 (-110)
Over: 236.5 (-110)
Under: 236.5 (-110)
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TV: Bally Sports
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
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Why The Thunder Could Cover The Spread
The Thunder have won six of their last ten games and escaped a game with the Pistons with a 107-106 victory. Performances have been hit-and-miss for them as of late. Led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his 31.3 points per game, the Thunder score the 5th most points per game in the NBA at 117.5 points per game. They have only hit that marker in four of their last ten games, and even lost a game when scoring 134 points, as they gave up 137 to the Hornets. Undeniably, the offense has to get to a consistent point, as in almost every other category they are a middle-of-the-pack team. Firstly, they are just below average in defense, sitting 18th. Secondly, in rebounding they are 13th in the NBA, and have a negative rebound differential. Thirdly, they are 15th in points per possession.
The best way for the Thunder to win is to play at a fast pace and score a lot of points. Gilgeous-Alexander should lead this. He is fourth in the NBA in scoring this season, and getting him above 30 points is going to be key to the game. When he has hit 31 or more points in March, the Thunder are 7-0. When he is at 30 or fewer points, the Thunder are 0-3. The problem is, he is out. That means someone else has to pick up the scoring mantle, which is difficult for the Thunder.
2021 first-round draft pick Josh Giddey may have to be that answer. In the game against the Hornets, he scored 31 points, but then went 6-19 shooting and only have 18 against the Pistons. If the Thunder want to win tonight, they need a better shooting night from Giddey. Behind that will be Jalen Williams, who had 27 against the Pistons. He is over 20 points in three straight games and can help lead this offense. If Giddey and Williams can both get going, they may be able to help replace the Thunder's star player.
Why The Pacers Could Cover The Spread
As a piece of good news for Giddey and Williams, they come into the night facing the 29th-ranked defense in the league. They also give up a lot of three-pointers, giving up 12.5 three-pointers per game, which is good for 20th in the NBA. As of late, the defense has been worse than normal. They gave up 149 points to the Bucks, and 143 points to the Hawks in two of their recent outings. Since March began, the best defensive performance the Pacers have put together was the 110 points by the San Antonio Spurs on March 2nd. The Spurs have a bad offense though, and the Thunder are much better.
While the three-point defense has been bad, the three-point shooting has been solid. They make 13.6 three-pointers per game, giving them a difference of 1.1 three-pointers per game. They will still be without Myles Turner, Chris Duarte, and Tyrese Haliburton in the game. Haliburton has been the major contributor to this offense overall. He is averaging 20.7 points per game, along with 10.4 assists. This will bring down the three-point game. Turner is the second-leading scorer on the team, so the offense will fall to Buddy Hield.
Heild is hitting 3.6 threes per game, to go with his 16.9 points, five rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. He has struggled in his last two games though. In both games, he was below 32% shooting and scored a combined 24 points in those two games. Andrew Nembhard has stepped up some. He is in double digits in scoring in four of his last five games, but more is going to be needed from him as well. The Pacers have to find offense tonight to try to keep pace. If they do, they can keep it close.
Final Thunder-Pacers Prediction & Pick
Scoring is going to be a concern for the Pacers, as is their defense. They are not playing good basketball right now. With so many players out, especially star players, this could be a struggle. The Thunder are missing one of the best players in the NBA though. If the Thunder can replace their star, they will win this game. They do so, as Giddey and Williams have a great game on this Pacers' defense.
Final Thunder-Pacers Prediction & Pick: Thunder -2.5 (-110)
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