The Atlanta Hawks play their second game in Fiserv Forum on Friday night, looking to take a 2-0 series lead against the Milwaukee Bucks. It’s time to continue our NBA Playoffs odds series and make a Hawks-Bucks prediction and pick for Game 2.
The Bucks hold an overall record of 8-4 in the postseason but are only 6-6 against the spread. Milwaukee lost their first game on their home floor in Game 1 against the Hawks.
The Hawks stand at 9-4 both overall and against the spread in the postseason. Atlanta has been a force on the road throughout the playoffs and stand at 6-2 away from home so far in the postseason.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Hawks-Bucks odds for Game 2.
NBA Odds: Hawks-Bucks Game 2 Odds
Atlanta Hawks +8 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks -8 (-110)
Over 225 Points (-110)
Under 225 Points (-110)
Why The Hawks Could Cover The Spread
The Hawks' Cinderella story season continued in Game 1, as Atlanta roared past the Bucks to take a series lead while beating Milwaukee on their home floor, a feat both the Heat and the Nets failed to do.
The shock upset puts Nate McMillan's group in the driver's seat, but the Hawks shouldn't be satisfied with just one win, as they proved this Bucks team is vulnerable in their first postseason meeting against one another.
So how can the Hawks take a 2-0 lead? The answer lies in following the same Game 1 blueprint, which included a heavy dosage of Trae Young and some hard-headed perimeter defense.
Young had a game for the ages in Game 1, coming a bucket shy of 50 points while shooting 50% from the field and dishing out 11 dimes. It wasn't a surprise to see Trae have a great game, but it did raise eyebrows at how easily he did it.
The Bucks simply couldn't contain Young at any point in the game. The highlight of the night was Trae having so much time to shoot a wide open three that he shimmied before draining it. It seemed like every time the star guard got in the lane, it was a floater that went down or a lob to John Collins or Clint Capela.
Even with Milwaukee's great perimeter defenders, there's a better chance Young goes for 40 than he scores under 25 tonight. If the Hawks can get a solid offensive night from Collins, Kevin Huerter, or Danilo Gallinari, this one will come down to the wire again.
Defensively, the Hawks completely shut down the Bucks three-point shooters. Milwaukee shot 22% from distance and seemed to brick every important three they took. This is the second time in three games that the Bucks shot less than 25% from three.
The Hawks were surprisingly good in the regular season at guarding the three-point line, holding opponents to 34.9% from three, the third lowest percentage in the league. Currently, opponents are shooting 36% from three in the postseason against Atlanta.
It's tough to see the Bucks winning without making at bare minimum 35% of their threes. They dominated the painted area in Game 1 (70 paint points to the Hawks 54 paint points) and still lost. If the Hawks continue their perimeter pressure, this could be a 2-0 series.
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
The silver lining for the Bucks in their Game 1 loss is that pretty much everything went wrong for the Bucks, and they still only lost by three points and held a late lead.
Giannis and Jrue Holiday were the only serious offensive contributors, combining for 67 points on 28/50 (56%) from the field. The rest of the Bucks combined for 46 points on 19/52 (36%) from the field.
The Bucks know Giannis will get his. The Hawks don't really have anyone on their roster to shut down the two-time MVP, and you can nearly guarantee a 25+ point double-double for him.
Holiday and Khris Middleton are the x-factors on both ends of the court. Holiday did his part in Game 1, but Middleton needs to be better. He failed to make a three-pointer in Game 1, despite shooting nine of them.
The good news for Bucks fans is that it is very unlikely Middleton shoots like this again. The Bucks second star has played 70 games this season (including playoffs) and has not made a single three in just seven of them prior to Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
Middleton is too good of a shooter to have back-to-back atrocious performances, and he should be good for at least 20-25 points on more efficient shooting Friday, which would have put the Bucks over the edge in Game 1.
On the defensive side, Milwaukee's pick-and-roll defense should improve after getting absolutely annihilated Wednesday night. The Bucks are capable of switching 1-4 with nearly every lineup they play, and we should see Middleton, Holiday, Giannis, and P.J. Tucker doubling and trapping Young much more in Game 2. Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez should also leave their comfort zones more often to pressure a Trae pass, and the Bucks rotation defense should cut down the amount of lobs to the Hawks big men.
The Bucks lost Game 1 because they got picked apart by Trae Young. A couple days of film study and defensive adjustments should help Milwaukee stem the bleeding tonight.
Final Hawks-Bucks Game 2 Prediction & Pick
The most frustrating aspect of Game 1 for Bucks fans and bettors was their inability to hit open shots and stay in front of Trae Young. Unfortunately for Milwaukee backers, I don't see much of a major turnaround occurring Friday. The Bucks should shoot the ball slightly better, but they'll need more than that to cover such a large spread. Atlanta has covered the spread three out of four times when given six or more points this playoffs, and that trend should continue tonight. It'd be a shock to see Milwaukee lose this one, but I'd also be surprised to see the Hawks fall by double-digits. Play the Hawks with the points and watch Trae work his magic.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: MIL 117, ATL 115 (ATLANTA HAWKS +8)
Follow Us
Subscribe