The Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers are locked in a fiercely contested Western Conference semifinal with the series knotted up at two games apiece.
The Nuggets fought hard on the road, winning Game 4, and the Blazers eked out a sensational win in quadruple overtime in Game 3.
Now the series returns home to Denver, where the Nuggets will play two out of the final three games in the series.
According to Kevin Pelton of ESPN, that win for the Nuggets on the road in Game 4 was huge for their win probability.
Game 4 is a huge swing game when the lower-seeded team leads 2-1, as is the case in both of today's matchups. In 2-2-1-1-1 series since 1984, the higher seed wins 2-2 series 79% of the time, but just 11% of the time when they fall behind 3-1.
— Kevin Pelton (@kpelton) May 5, 2019
As you can see, the higher-seeded team wins a series 79 percent of the time when the series heads back home tied up. But if they’re down 3-1, that probability plummets to a measly 11 percent.
Pelton frames the stats ahead of both Denver and Portland’s Game 4 as well as Toronto and Philadelphia’s. Both road teams were able to gut out huge victories – which means their win probability in the series remains quite high at 79 percent.
Furthermore, Pelton highlights the difference between home teams coming down from a 3-1 deficit, which has happened 11 percent of the time in NBA history, versus the lower seed:
Also worth noting here that discussing all 3-1 comebacks without regard to whether the team has home court is misleading.
Higher seeds down 3-1 have come back 11% of the time since 1984, which isn't good but is a lot better than lower seeds down 3-1. They're 2-108 (2%).
— Kevin Pelton (@kpelton) May 6, 2019
Of course, the most famous example of a team coming back from a 3-1 deficit is the Lebron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2016 NBA Finals against the 73-9 Golden State Warriors.
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