Aaron Rodgers is now a member of the New York Jets. Fans are ecstatic, as is Stephen A. Smith, but will the blockbuster trade result in wins? It's time to continue our 2023 NFL Odds series with a special New York Jets Win total prediction and pick.
Rodgers played 18 seasons in Green Bay. In that time he won a Super Bowl, a Super Bowl MVP, four regular season MVPs, and was named first-team All-Pro four times. He led the lead in passing touchdowns twice and went to ten pro bowls. Still, Rodgers will turn 40 before the season ends, and as much as he seems to be a perfect fit for the Jets, he is older, and that Super Bowl was 12 seasons ago. Since then Rodgers has been on the losing end of four conference title games and missed the playoffs twice. His teams have been at ten or more wins in nine of the 13 seasons that Rodgers has started the majority of games. So can he bring that magic to Gang Green?
Here are the 2023 NFL Win Total odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2023 NFL Odds: New York Jets Win Total
Over: 9.5 Wins (-134)
Under: 9.5 Wins (+110)
Why The Jets Will Win Over 9.5 Games
The first stat for Rodgers is the key, more times than not, his teams win over 9.5 games. This was also done when there were just 16 regular season games, meaning Rodgers has an extra game to get win number ten of the year. Last year, the Jets were able to win six games. They did that with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White playing quarterback for them. Rodgers could take a massive step back and still is a better quarterback than any of those three. The Jets probably could have traded for Ryan Tannehill and said the same thing though.
Secondly, Rodgers has two things he did not always have in Green Bay. Last year Rodgers threw the ball to Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, Robert Tonyan, Romeo Doubs, and an aging Randall Cobb. Cobb may be joining the Jets, but he may not see a lot of balls thrown his way. First, the Jets have Garrett Wilson, who is a legitimate number-one receiver in the NFL. In his rookie year, with poor QB play, he still caught 83 balls for 1,103 yards.
Then there is Tyler Conklin at tight end. He is a solid tight end who can put up numbers. He had similar numbers last year to Tonyan, again, with worse quarterback play. Corey Davis has shown he can be a solid number-two receiver in the NFL and had his best year when Ryan Tannehill was playing at a top level. Breece Hall is a solid running back, and the combination of him and Michael Carter is great coming out of the backfield.
Furthermore, the Jets have a great defense. In Rodgers's career, he has won 80 of 90 games when the defense gives up less than 21 points. Last year the Jets were tied for first in opponents yards per game, and gave up the fourth-fewest points in the NFL. The defense is top quality, and Rodgers will be able to rely on that as he plays. The last time Rodgers had a top-five defense in terms of points allowed, he won the Super Bowl. Since 2015, when he has had a top-15 defense in terms of yards allowed, he has won ten or more games each time. When the defense has been good, Rodgers has been outstanding, and his teams have won.
Why The Jets Will Win Under 9.5 Games
The biggest concern for the Jets has to be the schedule. The NFL will play games with the schedule when they release it to make sure it is favorable to Rodgers, but they cannot change who the Jets have to play. The Jets will host the Bills, Dolphins, Chiefs, Chargers, and Eagles this year. All five of those teams made the playoffs last year. The Bills won the division, while the Chiefs and Eagles played in the Super Bowl. They only have one surefire home win this year, getting to face the Texans. Atlanta may not be much improved, so that could be a win, and no one knows what the Commanders will be, plus they face the Patriots.
If they beat all the non-playoff teams, that is still just four wins, meaning they need to win six on the road. If they can beat two of the five playoff teams, then they only need four on the road. The road opponents still have the Bills, Patriots, and Dolphins. Most likely they will lose at least one of them, but potentially all three. They travel to Denver and Vegas, both of which are winnable games. They also travel to Dallas and Cleveland. Cleveland should be better, but may not be good enough, but Dallas is good. They most likely split those two games. then they are the “away” team against the Giants. It is not much of an away game, essentially giving the Jets ten games at home this year.
To hit the over, they will need to get two of four between Denver, Vegas, Dallas, and the Giants, beat the Browns, and at least get one of the divisional games. This is a tough schedule though. Of their 17 games, they will play nine against teams who were in the playoffs last year. That means they have to win at least three games against last year's playoff teams to hit the over. That may be a tall ask.
Final New York Jets Win Total Prediction and Pick:
The Jets have a very tough schedule, but they have the defense to make it happen. Last year, without Rodgers, they were able to beat the Bills and Dolphins at home. In the last three games of the season, they scored only 15 points total while giving up 63. They could have easily beaten the Jaguars, Dolphins, and Lions down the stretch had it not been for a horrid offense. Still, the defense may not perform as well. Rodgers could always get hurt, or he may just decide to go sit in a dark room for a few weeks. The NFL is unpredictable. This year, they beat the Dolphins, Patriots, Chargers, Texans, and Falcons at home. They take out the Broncos, Raiders, Giants, Browns, and Dolphins on the road. This brings them to ten wins, and the over.
2023 New York Jets Win Total Prediction: Jets go 10-7
2023 NFL New York Jets Win Total Pick: Over 9.5 (-134)
Follow Us
Subscribe