The New England Patriots suffered a shocking home loss to the Miami Dolphins in their regular-season finale this past Sunday, meaning they will have to play a Wild Card Round playoff game this coming weekend.
Their opponent? The Tennessee Titans, who embarked on a second-half surge to steal a postseason berth in the AFC.
While the Titans are hot and are certainly nothing to sneeze at, the Patriots should still find a way to come through with a victory on Saturday night.
Here are four reasons why New England will advance to the Divisional Round.
4. Home field
Not that home field mattered much for the Pats in their loss to the Dolphins, but that was the regular season. This is the playoffs.
The Patriots rarely lose at home in the postseason, and I certainly don't expect them to fall to a nine-win Titans club, regardless of how well Tennessee has been playing.
New England is not going to have many more opportunities to win Super Bowls with Tom Brady, as Brady is now 42 years old and is clearly no the same quarterback he once was.
Surely, the fans at Gillette Stadium understand that, and that building will be rocking this weekend as a result.
The rowdy crowd in Foxborough (coupled with some frigid weather) could very well rattle a young and inexperienced Titans squad that certainly did not look like it would be in this position a couple of months ago.
3. An improving running game
One aspect of the Patriots' offense that has been overlooked in recent weeks has been an improving ground attack.
Sony Michel, who had been abysmal for most of the regular season, has really picked it up over his last three games, logging totals of 74, 96 and 89 yards on the ground. He also averaged over four yards per carry in each of those contests.
Last year, Michel was instrumental in New England's championship run, scoring six touchdowns in the playoffs, including the only one that either side scored in the Pats' Super Bowl victory over the Los Angeles Rams.
With the Patriots' passing game ailing due to injuries and a lack of talent overall, getting Michel going will be imperative, and it seems that New England has found a way to do that in recent weeks.
It should be noted that the Titans have a respectable run defense, as they finished 12th in that category this season, but they are not exactly nails against the run.
Look for the Patriots to establish Michel early and often.
2. I don't trust Ryan Tannehill
As well as Ryan Tannehill has played since usurping Marcus Mariota as the Titans' starting quarterback, I still can't put all of my faith behind him in the playoffs.
Yes, he has been brilliant this season, leading the NFL with a 117.5 passer rating in 12 games and 10 starts, but this is also the same Ryan Tannehill that the Miami Dolphins could not wait to dump last year.
It's not like Tannehill has a track record of playing this well. He has never been a bad quarterback, but he has never been elite, either, and at 31 years old, I have a hard time believing that he suddenly found the secret sauce.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't trust Tannehill in a game of this magnitude, especially not against the most well-coached team in the history of the sport.
Again, the playoffs are a different animal, and Tannehill has actually never played in a playoff game in his NFL career. Having your first postseason game in Foxborough? Talk about a baptism by fire.
1. I do trust Tom Brady and Bill Belichick
Say what you want about Brady, but this is money time for him.
He did the same thing last season. He made a whole bunch of fans and analysts think he was cooked, but once the playoffs rolled around, he began turning in vintage performances en route to another title.
To be fair, Brady does look a bit worse this year, and he does have less talent at his disposal, but this is still Tom Brady we are talking about here.
The same goes for Bill Belichick.
Call me crazy, but I don't think Mike Vrabel (one of Belichick's former players) is going to outcoach Belichick.
Belichick will unquestionably devise schemes that he did not unleash during the regular season, and it will force teams like the Titans to adjust to him, and that is never a good thing for the opponent.
I'll throw my trust behind Brady and Belichick over Tannehill and Vrabel any day of the week.
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