The New York Jets spent most of their offseason waiting to get the green light when trading for Aaron Rodgers, and right before the 2023 NFL Draft, they finally did. The Jets gave up their 2023 first-round pick, in addition to a 2023 second-round pick, a 2023 sixth-round pick, and a conditional 2024 second-round pick that becomes a first-rounder if Rodgers play 65 percent of the Jets offensive snaps in 2023 in exchange for Rodgers, the Packers 2023 first-round pick, and a 2023 fifth-round pick as well.
Rodgers will go from a Green Bay Packers team that missed the playoffs in 2022 to a Jets squad that looks poised to find its way into the postseason with Rodgers under center. The Jets feel as if they could have made the playoffs if they had a starting caliber quarterback last season, and after trading for Rodgers, they finally appear to have that.
While this move is big for the Jets and Packers alike, it's also big for fantasy football owners who will consider drafting Rodgers when drafts get underway in a few months. So with Rodgers now on the Jets, let's take a look at what this means for fantasy football owners and see what should be expected from him in 2023 from a fantasy production standpoint.
Aaron Rodgers 2023 fantasy football outlook
The 2022 campaign was not a good one for Rodgers, the Packers, and Rodgers' fantasy football owners. Rodgers was coming off back-to-back MVP campaigns in 2020 and 2021, which led to many folks viewing him as one of the top fantasy options at quarterback for the season. The problem was that there were quite a few issues that popped up along the way.
Rodgers finished the 2022 season as the 13th best fantasy quarterback in the league, much to the disappointment of fantasy owners. For many weeks, Rodgers was unplayable as the Packers offense struggled to figure things out, and while they eventually turned the corner in the second half of the season, it didn't result in much of an improvement from Rodgers in the fantasy department.
Of course, there were a couple of notable factors contributing to Rodgers' poor performance. Green Bay traded their top wide receiver in Davante Adams over the offseason ahead of the season, and the Packers failed to replace him, leaving Rodgers with a very inexperienced pass-catching corps. Rodgers' trusted offensive coordinator in Nathaniel Hackett also left to take the Denver Broncos head coaching job, robbing Rodgers of one of his most trusted offensive minds.
With the Jets, it doesn't look like those problems will exist. Rodgers will join an offense that has one of the top up-and-coming wide receivers in the league in Garrett Wilson, and several other reliable targets, such as speedster Mecole Hardman, Rodgers former Packers teammate Allen Lazard, and the tight end duo of Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah. There's also running back Breece Hall, who looked like a star before tearing his ACL in Week 7 against the Broncos.
Rodgers will also be reunited with Hackett, who was fired towards the end of his only season with the Broncos, and subsequently brought to the Jets to be their new offensive coordinator. There will be a lot of changes for Rodgers to adapt to after spending his entire career with the Packers, which is why Rodgers' familiarity with Hackett could be such a big deal.
These are all positive developments for Rodgers, but can he truly be trusted by fantasy football owners in 2023? He struggled in 2022, even given the reasons for adversity, and he's making a big switch after spending 18 seasons with the Packers. Who's to say he won't turn in another ugly 2023 campaign?
Even if Rodgers doesn't return to his prior form, though, he's still a worthwhile investment for fantasy owners. Rodgers now has some shiny new toys to work with on offense, and many of the Packers offensive struggles were not his fault last season. Rodgers may not be able to play at an MVP level anymore, but he still likely is a top ten fantasy quarterback.
Rodgers' ceiling is obviously very high, which makes him a very interesting quarterback option. Obviously, quarterbacks aren't as valuable in fantasy football as they are in the actual game, but there are going to be skeptics of Rodgers based on what we saw last season. That could cause him to slide pretty far down some draft boards, making him a good value pickup towards the middle rounds of the draft if you are willing to wait to draft a quarterback.
There's still a lot of time for things to change before the start of the fantasy football season, but as of right now, Rodgers shouldn't be anyone's first choice when it comes to the quarterback position. Rodgers has a lot working for him to become a top ten quarterback again, but banking on him to do so is a bit of a risky proposition. However, if he slides down the board in your drafts, he could end up being one of the biggest steals of the year if everything goes according to plan in New York.
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