The UFC Vegas 118 Main Card is heating up as we're back with another prediction and pick for this upcoming tilt in the Bantamweight (135) Division. Bryce Mitchell of Arkansas will take on undefeated Mexican prospect Santiago Luna in a scrap you won't want to miss. Check our UFC odds series for the Mitchell-Luna prediction and pick.
Bryce Mitchell (18-3) has gone an impressive 9-3 inside the UFC since 2018, most recently putting away top prospect Said Nurmagomedov via unanimous decision his last time out. He's alternated wins and losses over his last seven fights, so he'll be looking to get back on track as the betting favorite against a short-notice opponent. Mitchell stands 5-foot-10 with a 70-inch reach.
Santiago Luna (8-0) is 2-0 through his first UFC appearances, most recently putting away Angel Pacheco via unanimous decision his last time out. He notched a performance bonus knockout during his debut and will now step in on short notice to replace Victor Henry and save this bout. Luna stands 5-foot-9 with a 74-inch reach.
UFC Vegas 118 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 118 Odds: Bryce Mitchell-Santiago Luna Odds
Bryce Mitchell: -142
Santiago Luna: +120
Over 2.5 rounds: -188
Under 2.5 rounds: +145
Why Bryce Mitchell Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Said Nurmagomedov – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 9 SUB
Bryce Mitchell came back with a strong performance against Said Nurmagomedov his last time out, completely dominating the grappling and overshadowing any striking production from his opponent. Nurmagomedov actually led the striking numbers by a significant margin (100-39), but Mitchell managed dominant grappling control in landing three of nine takedown attempts and controlling the action on the ground. During this fight, expect Mitchell to go back to the techniques he's most comfortable with in getting this fight to the ground and trying his grappling.
Mitchell has shown a concerted effort to improve his striking, choosing to stand and trade with recent opponents before resorting to the grappling. Mitchell remains raw on the feet and his hand speed isn't necessarily the fastest, but he landed on 76% of strikes in his last fight and remains accurate when choosing his shots. Against a strong counter puncher like Luna, he'll have to be intentional and precise with everything he throws.
To be successful, I think Mitchell should look to press Luna against the fence and frustrate him by not allowing much space to get any offense off. Mitchell does a great job taking away his opponents' strengths and Luna's energy will be the best thing going for him in this one. Look for Mitchell to neutralize the striking with the clinch and his grappling as he pivots opponents to a much more dangerous striker on the feet.
Why Santiago Luna Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Angel Pacheco – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Santiago Luna has looked extremely polished as a prospect up to this point, putting Quang Le away with a flush left look and hammerfists during his debut outing. Against Angel Pacheco, Luna was able to turn in a full three rounds of production where he kept his output consistent and landed 155 total strikes to Pacheco's 66 strikes. He forced Pacheco into just 32% accuracy on his significant strikes, so expect him to continue his defensive prowess on the feet as the better striker opposite Bryce Mitchell.
This will be Luna's first short-notice bout in the UFC and given how poised he's looked during his first two appearances, he should be able to handle this short fight camp as a total pro. On the feet, Luna doesn't take too many big risks without making sure he's covered defensively, but creates a ton of damage when he's able to land clean from within the pocket. If he's able to land several unanswered shots on Mitchell's chin, Luna certainly has the power to put his opponent away inside the distance.
Still, this will be Luna's toughest test to-date and a stern step up in competition from what he's accustomed to. Look for him to be conservative during the opening stages of the fight, but it won't be long before he opens his striking up while taking chances with big swings and kicks to put Mitchell away.
Final Bryce Mitchell-Santiago Luna Prediction & Pick
This fight should come down to whichever side can impose their will either on the feet or on the ground. Santiago Luna is a dangerous striker and will be most lethal in the opening minutes of each round when the two start standing. Bryce Mitchell is the much better grappler and if he's able to tie Luna up effectively, he should be able to control the action on the mats with his submissions attempts.
I expect Bryce Mitchell to be very focused during this bout as he's desperately looking for some recent consistency. Santiago Luna should be dangerous during the opening round, but Mitchell is more than used to this type of look after all the top-ranked opponents he's faced in the past. For our final prediction, let's roll with Bryce Mitchell to outlast in a tough back-and-forth scrap.
Final Bryce Mitchell-Santiago Luna Prediction & Pick: Bryce Mitchell (-142); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-188)
