The Miami Marlins (25-25) visit the Colorado Rockies (21-29) for their series finale on Thursday night. First pitch commences at 3:10 p.m. ET. The Marlins crushed the Rockies 10-2 in yesterday's Game 3 but the Rockies still hold a 2-1 advantage in the series. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Rockies prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Marlins-Rockies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Rockies Odds
Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+125)
Colorado Rockies: +1.5 (-150)
Over: 11 (-110)
Under: 11 (-110)
How To Watch Marlins vs. Rockies
TV: Bally Sports, ATTSN Rocky Mountain
Stream: MLB.tv
Time: 3:10 p.m. ET/ 12:10 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Marlins-Rockies LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 6-4 (Third in the NL East)
Run Line Record: 19-31 (38%)
Over Record: 21-27-2 (44%)
Miami bounced back in yesterday's Game 3 win after dropping the series' first two games. The Marlins cruised to a 10-2 win thanks to dropping all 10 of their runs between the fourth and seventh innings. Despite their .500 record and monster performance last night, Miami still seems to be over-performing considering they hold the second-worst run differential. The Marlins feature weak numbers on both sides of the plate as they put up the third-fewest runs per game with the 19th-ranked team ERA. That said, Miami's incredible 15-3 record in one-run games has kept them firmly in the mix. Still, the Marlins need to keep their offensive momentum rolling today if they want to cover as road favorites.
Lefty Braxton Garrett (1-2) makes his ninth start of the season for the Marlins tonight. Garrett took a big step in his first extended run as a major league starter last year. Despite a 3-7 record, he finished with solid Coors Field ratios with a 3.58 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. While his counting stats thus far don't look pretty (4.60 ERA and 1.35 WHIP) much of that can be attributed to a disastrous start earlier this month. In their loss to the Braves, Garrett gave up 11 runs on 14 hits and two walks.
Other than that blow-up, Garrett allowed more than two runs in just one of his other seven starts. He was dialed in over his last two outings – allowing just a single run and four hits in 11.1 innings. After he shut down the Rockies to the tune of a single run over 4.2 innings last season, look for him to keep the positive momentum rolling tonight.
Despite rough season-long numbers for the team, the Marlins have gotten a huge boost from Jorge Soler in recent weeks. Jorge batted just .207 over the first month of the year but is up to .286 this month. The power stroke has been particularly impressive with nine homers this month and three in his last four games.
Why The Rockies Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 5-5 (Fifth in the NL West)
Run Line Record: 23-27 (46%)
Over Record: 21-29 (42%)
Colorado was crushed in yesterday's Game 3 but still sits in a strong position to win the series after taking the first two games. Despite yesterday's loss, the Rockies have been much improved this month – going 12-9 after a brutal 9-20 April. While the Rockies continue to struggle on the mound, they make up for it with their 16th-ranked offense. Additionally, they trot out arguably their best starter for the series finale tonight. With Freeland on the bump, the Rockies stand a strong chance of covering tonight provided their offense can bounce back.
Rockies' staple Kyle Freeland (4-5) makes his 11th start of the season tonight. The 30-year-old southpaw enjoyed a strong start to the 2023 season with a 3.88 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He holds those strong ratios despite two blow-up starts during which he gave up at least five runs in less than three innings. One of those blow-ups occurred in his most recent start when the Rangers pegged him for nine hits and eight runs (five earned) in just two innings of work. Still, he had looked sharp this month prior to that start. In his three other May outings, he gave up just two runs in 18 innings of work. Consequently, tonight presents a strong opportunity to bounce back with a date with Miami's abysmal offense.
Despite their loss yesterday, catcher Elias Diaz continued his breakout season with a solo home run. The 32-year-old holds the second-highest average in the league and a .343/.396/.517 slash line. That said, Dias has struggled mightily against lefties this season – batting just .235 compared to .376 against righties. However, he had no issues with Braxton Garrett last season – going 2/3 with a triple and a walk in their lone matchup.
Final Marlins-Rockies Prediction & Pick
While neither Braxton Garrett nor Kyle Freeland's numbers look incredible on paper, they've been strong of late and should keep things (relatively) low-scoring.
Final Marlins-Rockies Prediction & Pick: Under 11 (-110)
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