The Cincinnati Reds and the Cleveland Indians will face off in a makeup game on Monday afternoon. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Reds – Indians prediction and pick.
These teams were supposed to play this game all the way back in early May, but the weather didn't allow it. This matchup would have held significantly more weight in May, as the Indians have fallen far out of playoff contention since then. Cleveland trails first place in the AL Central by 10.5 games, the largest deficit for a second place team in MLB. The Reds were in a similar situation, but they've picked up their play recently. Cincinnati is only five games back of first place in the NL Central, so every game is crucial. Both squads have a lot to play for, so this should be an interesting game.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Monday's game.
MLB Odds: Reds-Indians Odds
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)*
Cincinnati Reds ML (-170)
Cleveland Indians ML (+157)
Over 9 1/2 runs (-110)
Under 9 1/2 runs (-110)
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
Cincinnati has one of the best offenses in baseball. They rank inside the top five in the MLB in batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage. They also rank inside the top ten in home runs hit, runs, and hits. Pitching to this lineup is a pretty tough task, and Indians pitcher Sam Hentges should find that out the hard way.
Hentges has only made eight starts this season, but none of them have been good. He owns a 7.86 ERA and a 2.01 WHIP on the season, both terrible numbers. His advanced stats don't make matters any better. Hentges allows a barrel percentage of 12.3% and a hard hit percentage of 43.2%. Both of these are abnormally high, which doesn't bode well for facing a lineup that has seven hitters with above-average barrel percentages. The Reds specialize in hitting the ball hard, and it doesn't look like Hentges has what it takes to prevent that.
Cincinnati will deploy Luis Castillo for the start on Monday. Castillo's season-long numbers aren't too impressive, but his recent stretch of starts has been incredible. Over his last 15 starts, Castillo has earned a 2.59 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Those numbers should improve against an Indians offense that is one of the worst in the league. Cleveland ranks in the bottom ten in batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage. Castillo will have no problem working through this lineup.
Why The Indians Could Cover The Spread
The much-maligned lineup of the Indians hasn't been as terrible as usual lately. They've scored more than four runs in five of their last nine games. Right fielder Franmil Reyes has been scorching hot lately, hitting .305 in his last 15 games. This is still a below-average offense, but they have improved lately.
Opposing starter Luis Castillo has also been less than perfect on the season. Castillo has faced the Indians once so far, allowing four runs over four innings. He's also been much less effective when pitching on the road, posting a 4.50 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP when playing away from his home turf. This is perfect for Cleveland, as they're a significantly better offense when they play at home. The Indians' team batting average rises from .227 on the road to .241 whenever they play in Progressive Field. Another decent offensive performance could be in the cards for Cleveland.
Final Reds-Indians Prediction & Pick
The Reds are as close to a lock as you can get in this matchup. They have a significantly better pitcher on the mound, and their elite offense should annihilate Cleveland's terrible starting pitcher. The Indians offense has been poor throughout the season, and Castillo should work through them with ease. Taking the Reds -1 1/2 is also a comfortable pick.
FINAL PICK: Cincinnati Reds ML (-170)
Follow Us
Subscribe