The 2020-21 NBA Finals begins on Tuesday night with the Milwaukee Bucks visiting the Phoenix Suns in the desert. It’s time to continue our NBA Finals odds series and make a Bucks-Suns prediction and pick for the final series of the season.
The Bucks hold an overall record of 12-5 in the postseason and are 10-7 against the spread. Milwaukee is 5-4 on the road after eliminating the Atlanta Hawks in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Suns stand at 12-4 overall and 11-5 against the spread in the postseason. Phoenix is 6-2 in its home arena in the playoffs so far.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Bucks-Suns odds for Game 1.
NBA Finals Odds: Bucks-Suns Game 1 Odds
Milwaukee Bucks +6 (-105)
Phoenix Suns -6 (-115)
Over 219.5 Points (-110)
Under 219.5 Points (-110)
*Watch Game 1 of the NBA Finals LIVE with fuboTV*
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
The Bucks got some encouraging news when Giannis Antetokounmpo was upgraded from doubtful to questionable on the injury report Tuesday morning.
Having Giannis play any minutes at all would be a massive benefit to Milwaukee. The two-time MVP has been the most consistent Bucks player in the postseason, averaging 28.2 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists on 55.2% shooting. If Giannis does suit up, and plays even at limited capacity, he could help the Bucks break a Suns defense that has been stubbornly slow and effective of late.
However, the Bucks aren't doomed without Giannis. They still have multiple players that are more than capable of getting buckets and keeping Milwaukee in this game.
Since Giannis went down, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton have been spectacular. Middleton averaged 29.0 points and shot 48% from the field in the Bucks latest wins, and Holiday averaged 26.0 on 46.5% shooting.
Most importantly, Milwaukee has shown they have the shooting necessary to keep them in a game that should be low-scoring. In three out of their four postseason losses, the Suns have been outscored from the three-point line. Winning the three-point battle is a must for the Bucks tonight.
One silver-lining for Milwaukee backers if Giannis misses this game is the fact the Bucks can spread the floor completely with five shooters. Bobby Portis, who filled Giannis' starting role in both games the star missed, shot 47.1% from three this season.
The Suns struggled at times with the Clippers small ball lineup when Los Angeles subbed Zubac for a forward and played without a center or player that clogged the paint. We could see them struggle yet again with an upgraded version of this lineup tonight.
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
The biggest advantage the Suns have tonight, and have had all postseason, is health. For the sixth straight game, the Suns have all their starters available and in great form.
Pointing out that health is the Suns strength tonight isn't to downplay how good of a team the Phoenix is. Let's not forget Chris Paul and company finished the regular season with the second best record in the NBA, and took two games against the Clippers without their star point guard.
But the fact of the matter is the Bucks have a crushing issue with Giannis not at 100%, and the Suns can rely on their stars to produce and their bench guys to stay in their limited roles they have played to perfection of late.
Every Suns player has a role, and they all fill it perfectly. CP3 is the reliable distributor and closer, Booker is the bucket-getter, Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder are the three-and-D specialists, Ayton is the rock in the middle, and Cam Payne is the spark off the bench. Health allows everyone to embrace these roles wholeheartedly.
Asides for the injury free advantage, the Suns also hold a major advantage over the Bucks on the defensive end of the floor. Phoenix has allowed the least points per game this postseason, thanks to some perimeter clamps and limiting possessions. Both of these strategies spell trouble for Milwaukee.
The Bucks have looked atrocious at times in the half court set, and rely on transition opportunities to really run up the numbers. Milwaukee has scored 21.0 points on transition opportunities, the second most in the postseason. It'll be tough to do this when Paul is running the show and holds opponents to only 100.5 possessions a game, the fifth lowest in the league.
Add in the fact that the Suns have held opponents to only 32.6% from beyond the arc, and that neutralizes the Bucks second greatest weapon. Phoenix could throttle the Bucks offense early and cruise in the later quarters.
Final Bucks-Suns Game 1 Prediction & Pick
If you combine the factors of a gimpy Giannis, a Suns defense that matches up well with the Bucks strengths, and a raucous home crowd that Phoenix has lost only two postseason games in front of, this is shaping up to be a Game 1 shellacking. While I do expect the Bucks to put up somewhat of a fight tonight even if Giannis doesn't play, this is a level of competition the Bucks really haven't faced since they played the Nets with a healthy Kyrie. The Suns hold a massive upper hand and should capitalize tonight.
FINAL BUCKS-SUNS GAME 1 PREDICTION: PHX 112, MIL 103 (PHOENIX SUNS -6)
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