We're back to continue our prediction and pick coverage of UFC Vegas 119 as we look towards this next bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. Brazil's Vinicius Oliveira will take on California's No. 12-ranked Andre Fili in a “Fight of the Night” candidate on the Main Card. Check our UFC odds series for the Oliveira-Fili prediction and pick.
Vinicius Oliveira (23-4) is 4-1 inside the UFC since 2024. After a 4-0 start where he notched a debut knockout and three subsequent unanimous decisions, he suffered his first promotional loss to Mario Bautista his last time out. He'll be looking to bounce back and earn a ranking this time around. He stands 5-foot-9 with a 72-inch reach.
Andre Fili (25-13) is 13-12-0-1 inside the UFC since joining the roster in 2013. Most recently falling to Jose Delgado via split decision, Fili has alternated wins and losses over his last nine bouts for a 4-5 record. He's on-track for a win in this one as he looks to prevail as the stern betting underdog. Fili stands 5-foot-11 with a 74-inch reach.
UFC Vegas 119 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 119 Odds: Vinicius Oliveira-Andre Fili Odds
Vinicius Oliveira: -310
Andre Fili: +250
Over 2.5 rounds: -110
Under 2.5 rounds: -120
Why Vinicius Oliveira Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Mario Bautista – SUB (rear naked choke, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 16 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Vinicius Oliveira has been on a fast-track to facing ranked featherweight competition since joining the UFC roster and putting together a viral flying knee knockout during his debut. His last loss to Mario Bautista is nothing to scoff at considering Bautista's rise through the division, so the hope is that Oliveira can learn and evolve his game thanks to his first defeat. His previous bout against Giga Chikadze for this card was cancelled as Chikadze withdrew, pinning him against a new and similarly talented striker in Andre Fili.
Vinicius Oliveira fights with a fearless aura and isn't the least bit frightened by strikes coming back his way. He stands with a flat-footed stance and slowly inches forward to close the distance, keeping his head tilted back and leaning out of range from strikes. Just when his opponent isn't expecting anything, Oliveira will lunge forward with a barrage of combinations in hopes of ending the fight and/or seriously damaging his opponent.
During this bout, Oliveira may have to be more defensively-minded against a strong and experienced striker like Andre Fili. Fili is great at setting up his feints and hitting opponents on the counterattack, so Oliveira will have to be patient in not overextending himself and leaving openings for Fili to capitalize.
Why Andre Fili Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Jose Delgado – S DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Andre Fili steps into this spot on short notice while putting his No. 12 ranking on the line against a dangerous prospect, a true testament of how game and willing he is to stand in the cage and scrap with any opponent. While his last loss came in a tough split decision, he hasn't dropped back-t0-back losses a single time throughout his long career. In this fight, Fili can certainly stun some people if he's able to land his hands accurately from the onset of the first round.
As mentioned, Fili is a master in setting up feints and forcing his opponents to bite on them. He's extremely active with his low leg kicks, which could pose difficulty for Oliveira, while also keeping his high head kicks active and his opponent guessing. His greatest tool is his lead jab and he's been able to stifle a number of talented strikers with his consistent output.
Pressure will be the biggest focus for Andre Fili as Oliveira isn't accustomed to getting overwhelmed in the striking department. If Fili can remain strong on his front foot and continuously disrupt Oliveira's forward movement with that jab, he could very well see the tide turn in his favor the longer this fight drags on.
Final Vinicius Oliveira-Andre Fili Prediction & Pick
This fight has all the makings of a “Fight of the Night” as both sides are incredibly willing to engage each other in a full-out brawl. Andre Fili has more experience in these types of spots and he has yet to lose back-to-back fights in his career. With Oliveira suffering his first loss last time out, the blueprint on how to beat him could be apparent as Fili will be looking to exploit the gaps.
Still, Oliveira is a tough out for any striker as he's fearless with his own offense and isn't too concerned about absorbing damage. Unless Fili can seriously gain his respect early on, expect Oliveira to continuously march forward with little regard as he throws haymakers Fili's way.
For our final prediction, we're going to take a chance on Andre Fili and the fight trends throughout his career. He's preserving a ranking during this fight and should be able to hurt Oliveira in the process.
Final Vinicius Oliveira-Andre Fili Prediction & Pick: Andre Fili (+250); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-110)
