The question “what if?” is asked quite often as it relates to NBA history.
What if the Portland Trail Blazers drafted Michael Jordan instead of Sam Bowie? What if Len Bias never tragically passed away? What if Derrick Rose never tore his ACL?
Sometimes, the best “what if?” questions related to potential dream matchups. Basketball fans got to see Magic Johnson against Larry Bird, but they were robbed of Kobe Bryant against LeBron James.
There was a chance for new blood in the 2018 playoffs. The Boston Celtics pushed LeBron's Cleveland Cavaliers to the brink of elimination, while James Harden‘s Houston Rockets had the Golden State Warriors on the ropes. Instead, the Cavs and Dubs each staved off elimination, setting up the fourth consecutive NBA Finals series between the two teams.
But what might have happened if, say, a number of Rockets news talked about Houston making it out of the West instead of the Warriors? Would they still have defeated the Cavs so handily?
X-Factor: Is Chris Paul healthy…?
Remember, Chris Paul‘s hamstring injury was one of the crucial factors in Houston's loss to the Warriors. He got injured in the fourth quarter of Game 5, then missed each of the next two contests, including a Game 7 in which he helplessly watched his team miss 27 straight 3-pointers.
The Rockets were pretty helpless — both offensively and defensively — from the perimeter without Paul in the lineup. Klay Thompson dominated Game 6 for the Dubs, while Stephen Curry sliced and diced his way to a near triple-double with 27 points, 10 assists, and nine boards.
Now, the Cavaliers did not have the same kind of perimeter threats as the Warriors, obviously. But with LeBron likely matching up against James Harden in a hypothetical Finals showdown, the Rockets would need some more playmaking on the floor.
Trevor Ariza was terrible in the Western Conference Finals, and Eric Gordon is a streaky perimeter threat. Not to mention, Clint Capela would have had a harder time getting clean looks and boards against someone like Kevin Love.
….does it matter?
Well, yes. Cleveland would have much more success against the Rockets with Paul out.
The Cavaliers would have more opportunities to chase Harden and crowd the paint. Offensively, Love's ability to stretch the floor could open up the paint for LeBron.
Paul is excellent at chasing off the ball when he is not concerned about his assignment scoring the ball. He would undoubtedly be helping on LeBron whenever he looked to isolate.
If Paul is not on the floor, the Cavaliers stand a better chance of beating that Rockets team. But the greater likelihood is that Paul would have returned even if he was forced to miss a game or two. That would not bode well for the Cavaliers, who just did not have the kind of prolific scoring output or capacity to defend.
Conversely, the Rockets were a very good defensive team with Paul on the floor, maybe even better than the Warriors, who smothered everybody not named LeBron in the Finals.
In short, the Rockets win.
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