LeBron James will be facing his first winner-take-all game in a first-round series after a humiliating Game 6 loss by the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Indiana Pacers on Friday. The Cavs will be playing on their turf which should boost their confidence for Game 7 at the Quicken Loans Arena.
The winner of that game will advance to the next round of the playoffs to face the Toronto Raptors.
Game 7 should be of particular interest to more than just Cavs or Pacers fans as the fate of LeBron James may be determined by the game's outcome. The bigger picture, however, may suggest that James’ free-agency destination isn’t the only one at stake here but that of the NBA’s other superstars as well.
How is that so?
Scenario 1: Cavs Win and Advance Further, James Stays, NBA’s stars leave the East
If they win Game 7 and move on to the next series, the Cavaliers could have an easier time against the Raptors than the Pacers owing to the fact that Toronto still has no answer to the “LeBron problem.”
After the Cavs defeated the Raptors 132-129 in a March 21 game where James had 35 points and 17 assists with no turnovers, Complex.com’s Zach Frydenlund had this to say:
“Let’s be real here: Imagine having the best season in franchise history and not even making the conference finals, because that’s what would happen to the Raptors if the Cavs somehow fell to the fourth seed. So maybe last night was a blessing for the Raptors in some ways. Sorry to break it to you, Toronto, the Eastern Conference still runs through LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.”
But guess what? The Cavs ended up as the number four seed and if the Cavs win Game 7 on Sunday, they’ll face the Raptors one series earlier than Toronto would like.
The defending East champs have a good shot at getting to the Eastern Conference Finals as the MVP candidate is quite familiar with these Raptors from their match-ups the last few seasons in the playoffs. The deeper the Cavs go into the postseason, the greater the chances that he’ll stay in Cleveland next season.
Should the Cavs play better in the succeeding rounds and make it to the Finals as an underdog, the belief will be that they are just a player or two away from winning it all next season.
The rest of the NBA’s superstars will be reminded that James is still the uncontested King of the East and they will avoid playing in the conference where he resides if they want to make it to the Finals.
Scenario 2: Cavs Lose, James Bolts, Stars Flock to East
If the Cavs lose Game 7, it is more likely that James has played his last game in a Cavaliers uniform as he would move on to another team that will give him a better shot at a championship. A loss in the first-round will be so devastating for James that he isn’t likely to trust that his current teammates can help him win his fourth ring. He probably wouldn’t trust GM Koby Altman and Cavs owner Dan Gilbert that they can put the necessary pieces around him to compete.
It will also signal a changing of the guard. No longer will the other stars think that James is still the unstoppable force that he has been in previous years.
The Eastern Conference offers a wide-open race once again and some of the league's stars have a shot at making it to the NBA Finals and perhaps even win a championship.
As ridiculous as this may seem, the East’s best players have been migrating to the Western Conference for the past few years. If you were to name the 30 best players in the NBA, most of them reside in the West.
If you don’t believe me, try naming the best players you can think of and you’ll see that many of them are now playing for a Western Conference team. Here’s mine and I’ll even semi-rank them (it’s just a half-hearted ranking, not one that represents their actual ranking, ok?) in terms of how good I think they are:
- LeBron James
- Anthony Davis
- James Harden
- Kevin Durant
- Stephen Curry
- Russell Westbrook
- DeMarcus Cousins
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Chris Paul
- Kyrie Irving
- DeMar DeRozan
- Joel Embiid
- Ben Simmons
- Damian Lillard
- LaMarcus Aldridge
- Karl-Anthony Towns
- Kristaps Porzingis
- Jimmy Butler
- Victor Oladipo
- Paul George
- Bradley Beal
- John Wall
- Klay Thompson
- Draymond Green
- Lou Williams
- DeAndre Jordan
- Kemba Walker
- Andre Drummond
- Nikola Jokic
- Donovan Mitchell
Looking at this list, there are 11 East players and 18 from the West. This is why the West teams are more closely bunched up in the standings than the East. The talent is more spread out in the West which has more parity. The West represents what Adam Silver wants and it’s what David Stern wanted before he retired. It hasn’t happened league-wide but it’s happening in the West.
And this can slightly be considered James’ fault. Everyone wants to have a shot at a championship but they can’t do that unless they get to the NBA Finals first. But the Cavs' four-time MVP has put a stranglehold on the Eastern Conference championship that other players can only watch idly by as their teams get blitzed by his team, whether it’s the Miami Heat or the Cavaliers.
Look at Kevin Durant’s free-agency decision. He didn’t even think of going to the East to get as far away from Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder as possible. He stayed in the West and signed with the team that defeated his own just so he has a greater chance of making it to the championship round and win a ring.
Why didn’t he try to go to the Raptors, Wizards, or Celtics? He would have made any of those teams championship contenders.
Instead, Durant wanted the sure way of winning a ring and that’s by joining the already-mighty Warriors.
On March 30, just a few weeks before the playoffs, Wizards point guard Tomas Satoransky was asked about their first-round playoff opponent. According to NBC Sports’ Chase Hughes, Satoransky was keeping it real, saying it like it is, and by doing so expressed what many in the East feel about facing James in the playoffs.
“For me still, Cleveland is not the best option for me personally,” he said. “I would probably be pleased with a different matchup for us.”
Why is that?
“It's because of LeBron, obviously,” Satoransky added. “He always steps up his level in the playoffs and it's very challenging to play him. He, what, hasn't lost a [first-round] playoff game for eight years?”
This year, however, James suddenly finds himself on the brink of being ousted in the first round of the playoffs for the first time in his career.
A Cavaliers meltdown in Game 7 is a sign for everyone that the King’s reign has ended.
Other free agents will find that it’s a wide-open race again in the East and consider their chances at a championship to be better this time around.
They can form super teams knowing that the narrative in the East isn’t about “LeBron James and there’s everybody else.” The Celtics are already eyeing Kawhi Leonard. Philadelphia could choose to go a different route and sign George rather than James. Toronto could make a play for DeAndre Jordan.
But there’s another implication.
Scenario 3 Cavs Lose, James Stays, Recruits Superstars to Cavs
James stays put in Cleveland and tries to “recruit” other stars to play with him. In his first year back in Cleveland in 2014, James wanted Kevin Love to play with him on the Cavs and he got his wish.
In a piece written by CBS Sports’ Ken Berger, he talked about the power that James has on the Cavaliers franchise and its decisions on free agent signings.
“LeBron usually gets what LeBron wants.
This was true during his first tour with the Cavs, when his close friends and associates were given enormous latitude and influence within the organization. It was evident in the team's personnel moves, with former GM Danny Ferry doing everything in his power to keep James from leaving in 2010 — from Shaquille O'Neal to Antawn Jamison to a failed bid to acquire Amar'e Stoudemire.”
What if he does the same and seek out, say Paul George or Kawhi Leonard to join him in Cleveland? Or maybe he recruits DeMarcus Cousins or some other superstar player?
In the offseason, James and George were seen together having lunch. Planning their team-up on a team in 2018, perhaps? The former Indiana Pacers forward wasn’t about to give us that answer and instead offered up a simpler reason as to their meeting. ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne reported that the two were merely catching up and didn’t discuss their free agency destinations.
“This past summer, when Cleveland was trying to trade for him, Paul George said he and LeBron had lunch because they were in the same place on the same day, but ‘it wasn't about teaming up.’ Just strengthening their bond.”
James has built up enough friendships around the league that he can probably convince two stars to play with him in Cleveland. The balance of power may once again be tilted toward the Cavaliers and it also means that other free agents may opt to play in the West instead.
Or they could still flock to the East and instead for their own super team in a bigger market such as New York or Chicago since they know that James and the Cavs can be beaten and that he is not the immovable object that he used to be.
Chris Paul could stay with the Rockets if his time there results in a Finals appearance this season and the rest of the Warriors may stick together but everyone else may decide that they want to play with an Eastern team now that Houston and Golden State are keeping other teams from advancing to the Finals the way James did.
In 2018, the prominent free agents are expected to be LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Paul George, DeAndre Jordan, Chris Paul, and DeMarcus Cousins. In 2019, it will be Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Klay Thompson, Kemba Walker, Nikola Mirotic, Devin Booker and Kristaps Porzingis. And in 2020, it’s Kyle Lowry, Paul Millsap, Al Horford, Hassan Whiteside, Kevin Love, Jeff Teague, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Ben Simmons and Jaylen Brown.
Can you imagine a scenario in which a couple of those star players play together and form their own super team to beat James? Sure you can and it’s likely to happen, too. More than one franchise will take a shot at it just like the Warriors tried and succeeded even though other teams like the Knicks failed in 2016-17 with Anthony, Porzingis, and Derrick Rose.
These are the different scenarios facing the NBA with Game 7 of the Cavs-Pacers series right around the corner. The league, its players, the media and the fans will be watching intently knowing that we may be seeing a number of new super teams in the next five years with James’ latest decision this season.
Stay tuned.
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