The Toronto Raptors face off against the Denver Nuggets for the second time this season in the Mile High City. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Raptors-Nuggets prediction and pick.
The Raptors currently hold an overall record of 26-36, and are 27-35 against the spread. Toronto is coming off a loss to the Brooklyn Nets.
The Nuggets stand at 41-21 but are only 29-33 against the spread. Denver is playing the second game of a back-to-back after defeating the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Raptors-Nuggets odds.
NBA Odds: Blazers vs. Nuggets Odds
Toronto Raptors +3 (-110)
Denver Nuggets -3 (-110)
Over 218.5 Points (-110)
Under 218.5 Points (-110)
Why The Raptors Could Cover The Spread
The Nuggets have struggled to cover of late. They've been favorites in all five of their last games, and only covered once. Denver's home spread record is an eye-sore at 14-19, and they've only covered in one of their last six games at home. It's the major reason the NBA odds are set at what they are in terms of the spread for this contest.
The Raptors, on the other hand, have actually been covering at a consistent rate of late. In five of their last seven games, Toronto has covered.
The last time these two squads met, the Raptors lit the Nuggets up. Toronto hit a whopping 24 triples and shot 50% from the field and beyond the arc while holding Denver to 42% shooting.
This game was essentially a perfect summary of how Toronto wins games: Hit three-pointers and lock opponents down inside the three-point line.
The Raptors shoot the third most three-pointers in the league, and when they're falling, Toronto is tough to beat. In the last ten games the Raptors shot 40% or better from deep, they're 8-2.
Denver's three-point defense has been solid all year (seventh lowest opponent 3P%), but we've seen what happens when Toronto's shooters come out hot. The Nuggets will miss the presence of Will Barton and Monte Morris along the perimeter, two speedy defenders that could help keep Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet in check.
Unlike Toronto, Denver gets the majority of their points inside the arc. This plays in to the strength of Toronto's defense.
The Raptors struggle to guard the three-point line (sixth highest opponent 3P%), but they've been great at guarding the painted and mid-range area. Toronto holds opponents to only 45.7% shooting from the field, the seventh lowest figure in the NBA.
If the Raptors can force Denver to get in to a shootout after they played a draining game yesterday, we could see the Raptors blitz the Nuggets yet again.
Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
While Toronto's latest success looks pretty good on paper, it isn't very impressive under close examination.
Three of the Raptors five covers came against cellar dwellers in the Magic, the Cavaliers, and the Thunder. Another came against a Nets team without Durant and Harden.
When the Raptors matchup with quality opponents, they usually struggle. In their last 10 games against teams over .500, Toronto is only 2-8.
The Nuggets are a quality team even without their second best player and should have enough firepower to get past a streaky Raptors squad.
Denver scores the fourth most points in the league, and the Jamal Murray injury has not seemed to slow their offensive production and it's one of the reason the NBA odds favor them in this one.
In five of their eight games since Murray's injury, the Nuggets have scored 120+ points. In half of those games they've shot 50% or better from the field.
Nikola Jokic has been the leader of the explosive offense. In the eight games without Murray, the leading MVP candidate has averaged 27.1 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 7.8 assists while shooting 58.4% from the field.
The Raptors will not have their best defensive big man available tonight as Chris Boucher recovers from a sprained MCL. Expect Jokic to feast and post another efficient outing as he solidifies his grip on the MVP trophy.
Final Raptors-Nuggets Prediction & Pick
Even on the second night of a back-to-back, I expect the Nuggets offense to be capable of running up the points. The Nuggets are prepping for a final playoff push, and will have revenge on their mind after getting embarrassed in Florida the last time these two met. I'll take Denver to avenge their loss and pull out a close win on their home floor.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: DEN 116, TOR 109 (DENVER NUGGETS -3)
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