Is it safe to say — to New York Yankees fans and everyone else — that the AL Cy Young Award is Gerrit Cole's to lose in the 2021 MLB season's final weeks?
The answer is probably yes, but there are still a few pitchers out there who could pull off the upset.
On the year, Gerrit Cole has a 2.73 ERA in 25 starts (155 innings pitched), averaging 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings and just under two walks. His 215 strikeouts lead all of baseball, and his 2.53 FIP is tops in the American League. As you can imagine, Cole's strikeout and walk rates are elite, as are his whiff/chase rates and wOBA. His 153 ERA+ is also third in the AL, behind just Chicago's Lance Lynn (164) and Toronto's Robbie Ray (162).
Gerrit Cole had a rocky June and July, posting a 4.68 ERA in ten starts, coinciding with the Yankees' larger troubles. Then he tested positive for COVID-19 in early August, which apparently set him straight because he's been out of this world since his return, giving up just two runs in 24 2/3 innings to help catapult the now-red-hot Yankees to the top of the AL wild card standings.
Gerrit Cole is maintaining a fantastic resume that will be tough to beat. Lynn figures to be one of the main contenders to upset Cole's bid for his first Cy Young award, though has recently found himself on the IL with right knee inflammation (the White Sox are hopeful Lynn only misses one start). Depending on who you talk to, Ray should have more consideration as well.
Interestingly enough, both Lynn and Ray currently lead Cole in ERA+. Lynn has gotten plenty of attention being on the division-leading White Sox, but Ray has often been the odd man out of the conversation when most people are talking about Gerrit Cole, Lynn and, of course, Shohei Ohtani. But it shouldn't be forgotten just how good of a season Ray is having too. He has a 2.71 ERA in 26 starts, and has a 1.86 ERA since July 4. Ray has a sparkling xFIP of 3.21 and a 3.4 WAR – the only issue is that Cole's xFIP is an insane 2.69 to pair with a 5.2 WAR.
Speaking of insane, how are we still talking about Cole maybe finally winning his first Cy Young? Over nine seasons between Pittsburgh, Houston and New York, Gerrit Cole has a 3.14 ERA and a career ERA+ of 131, finishing in the top five of the Cy Young voting four times. The closest he came to winning was 2019, when he led all of baseball with 326 strikeouts, 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings and a 185 ERA+ for the Astros. He also led the AL with a 2.50 ERA and 2.64 FIP, eventually losing the award to… his teammate on the Astros, Justin Verlander, who had a pretty incredible season of his own.
This is all without mentioning two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani, who just so happens to also be in the AL Cy Young mix while most certainly being a lock for the AL MVP. Ohtani has a 3.00 ERA in 19 starts with a 148 ERA+ – great numbers to be sure – but it just doesn't seem likely voters would cut him much slack when he's already got the MVP award essentially in his pocket. Plus, Ohtani will now miss at least one start with a wrist injury; time's running out on him to make a push for the Cy Young.
But as the Yankees continue to make their push for the playoffs, Gerrit Cole is going to be one of the biggest factors in making that happen. He has once again stabilized the rotation and remains a force to be reckoned with.
This should finally be the year he wins his first Cy Young – and it probably won't be his last.
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